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Tennis value betting was the first betting technique I succeeded with. Betting on tennis became a way of generating enough profits, even for a living.
For many people, tennis can seem boring to watch, but for me, it was the most interesting and fun sport to follow and bet on.
My basic betting strategy back then was arbitrage betting, but later I realized that switching to value betting on tennis was more profitable and sustainable.
Why is tennis good for value betting?
The fact that tennis is not a team sport (except in doubles) makes tennis one of the best sports for making money with value betting and sure betting.
Many bettors made a fortune and made tennis betting for a living after learning enough and being able to place bets despite the fast-moving odds on live events.
Bookies can’t keep up with the fast-changing player performance, which creates hundreds of value betting opportunities on tennis.
In-play betting on tennis helps you stay under the radar due to a large amount of data flow.
They can’t analyze each in-play bet/odds, so it is harder for bookies to spot smart actions like tennis value bets.
What is the value betting on tennis?
Value betting is one of the most profitable ways of making money with sports betting, and tennis is also the top sport for it. This technique can guarantee you significant profit in the long run.
How does tennis value betting work?
Value betting is based on taking the best odds possible for an outcome, but those odds have to be higher than the true probability of winning.
In short, you need to find overpriced odds and betting lines, and the payout is higher than it should be. In these cases, the odds favor the bettor and not the betting site.
Generally speaking, bookmakers have a negative house edge on tennis value bets. Want to find out how to start?
What does this mean in tennis betting?
To be a winner and profitable with tennis value betting, in the long run, you need to have better information about the match/player than the bookmaker.
You, as a bettor, don’t need to know more about tennis players than all of the bookmakers.
This would be almost impossible as bookies have even insider information that is not shared with the big audience.
Your information about the players has to be more accurate, only against one bookmaker, the one you are betting on.
How to find tennis value bets:
- You find a tennis match at William Hill where the bookie thinks that both players have a 50%-50% chance to win.
- This would give you an odd of approximately 1.88 for both players.
- Following a bookmaker that is more accurate in defining odds will put you at an advantage against your local betting site.
- One of the best sharp bookmakers known for offering extremely accurate in-play odds is Pinnacle.
- Pinnacle, in this example, will display odds pairs of 1.55 – 2.55 for players in this match.
- Knowing and trusting Pinnacle’s tennis lines, if we take the odds of 1.88 at our local betting site, we will have an advantage over our bookmaker.
This betting technique, called value betting or positive Expected Value betting, is proven to be one of the most profitable ones.
The strategy itself is working on every sport if you can find bookmakers with sharp (the most accurate) odds.
Tennis value betting tips
Tennis has a lot of characteristics that make it one of the best profit-generating sports even for a living.
Many professional bettors made a fortune just from trading or value betting on tennis.
If you are a beginner in tennis betting, learning about a sport, players, or teams could seem difficult, time-consuming, and worthless.
1. Tennis value bets because of nr. of players
Even the biggest and most popular betting sites are less likely to keep up with the amount of info they get or should get from each tennis player.
Missing minor information while the match is in play can have a big effect on the odds bookies provide.
The easiest to spot these bets is by following a positive EV bet finder.
I know some professional bettors who followed the top 100 tennis players for many years.
Knowing the personality of a player and the way they react to certain situations can offer a real advantage against bookies.
A small example would be Djokovic or Nadal. They might lose 1 or 2 sets in bigger tournaments.
But they are like some kind of robots. If not injured, they easily come back and destroy their opponent.
Tennis value bets appear easily on live events because of this small information deficit a bookie can have for a short period.
While team sports like football are more complex, one player having some issues won’t cause that much difference as in tennis.
2. Fast-moving odds create more tennis value bets
The players can gain points in a relatively fast way, and they also might lose the critical stages of an event.
In tennis, you will always see surprise points and game-winners (breaks), even if you are looking at a match between players with a big experience difference.
These moments are generating opinion differences among bookmakers and creating big tennis value betting opportunities.
Betting strategies based on odds dropping are the basis of most smart betting techniques.
Even a single match can create over 20-50 entry points for a great tennis value bettor.
3. Focus only on tennis value betting
Some tennis rules might not be obvious right from the start. Understanding this sport’s dynamics and the players’ psychology might take some time.
To succeed in tennis value betting, you need to know the majority of rules that influence the game flow.
You need to know when they take bigger breaks, what a smaller injury means in players’ performances, etc.
Initially, I thought even a small injury could make a player lose games, sets, and even matches.
Bookies might offer higher odds in these cases, and you could think that taking advantage of these tennis value bets will give you an unfair advantage.
Based on my experience, some players may even simulate these injuries to win some time or confuse the opponent.
If you see a player being destroyed, but the odds for the break are not dropping enough, it can create great betting opportunities.
BetBurger is by far the best sure bet finder for in-play tennis betting.
But you need to know tennis in and out to spot these moments when a player truly has serious issues and a value betting opportunity is created.
4. Focus on In-play tennis value betting only
I know that in-play tennis betting is probably the most challenging of all kinds of techniques.
The odds are moving fast, you need to make decisions in seconds, and the breaks take only a few seconds or one minute.
Pre-match value betting will get your account limited fast, no matter what you do.
A betting account without a limit can be the most valuable asset you have in life if used correctly.
While one bettor can make 200-300 euros with pre-match football arbing or bonus hunting, another in-play tennis value bettor can stay under the radar for enough time to generate over 5000 euros with the same account.
5. Wait until a break
In most cases, you should not place bets while a game is still in play.
The odds can move in any direction, and even accurate betting sites such as Pinnacle can’t always offer accurate lines.
It wasn’t rare that I made the mistake of being greedy after seeing big odds discrepancies while a game was still on.
When you are value betting on tennis, I advise waiting for the breaks between games.
They are significantly longer when the number of games in that set is odd (2-1; 3-2; 4-1; etc.).
Both tennis players are taking a longer rest, so you have more time to ensure the value bet you want to take is overpriced.
6. Know which tennis outcome has the most value
This will require more experience and knowledge about tennis.
But if you can spot the wrong odds manually by looking at the event on stream, your local bookies, and the sharp bookie, you can even place tennis value bets before a value betting software could display it.
How to keep tennis value betting sustainable?
- You need to understand the basic tennis rules to avoid major mistakes that can lead to big losses
- Most bookmakers cover every main tennis tournament, so don’t get greedy by placing bets on small tournaments such as ITF or Challengers.
- Use trustworthy and sharp betting lines for tennis value betting. Pinnacle is top, but Bet365 also has pretty accurate odds.
- Value betting is one of the hardest in-play tennis betting systems. Your accounts will last longer if you focus on big tournaments and popular markets
- Tennis matches and markets are finished relatively fast, so after a winning bet, you can place new bets more often
How to win with tennis value bets?
The only betting strategies that can guarantee profit from every bet you place are arbitrage betting and matched betting.
Tennis value betting system
Finally, let’s mention some tennis betting strategies.
Lately, I discovered that Pinnacle is not the only one with accurate, sharp odds on tennis.
Some bookmakers like Bet365 are getting great at defining tennis players’ real probability of winning.
Even in live tennis betting, their odds are getting more accurate.
Personally, I don’t use them as my main bookie for finding true odds, but they can be an excellent guideline on certain markets when Pinnacle seems off.
My most basic tennis value betting strategy for live events:
- Compare odds with Pinnacle using live value bet finder services
- I’m taking tennis value bets above 1% but below 7% all the time to avoid a fast limitation and variance as well
- Small tournaments like Challengers or ITF are a “No-go zone”. You can get your account limited even after a single bet on these events.
- I don’t take odds under 1.40 and above 3.50 to reduce the variance and the risk of losing bigger stakes
- You can win more bets on smaller odds, but the value size might also be significantly smaller.
- Placing odds in breaks between games will make your tennis value bet more accurate. Sharp bookies can offer better info while the odds are not fluctuating.
Find out which software is the best for your needs. Down below you can check my detailed comparison table of the best arbitrage and value betting sites.
Can you do tennis betting for a living?
The most simple and honest answer is a strong YES. Tennis betting can be profitable enough to make it for a living.
The question you have to ask yourself is: are you capable of learning enough about tennis betting?
What does betting on tennis for a living require?
- I suggest arbitrage betting for the safe but smaller income and value betting for bigger variances for way more money.
- Access to a lot of bookmakers. The more bookies you have access to, the better odds will be available for tennis betting. And not to forget that you can use another bookie if your account is limited.
- A decent capital only for betting purposes. I would say that 1k euros is enough to make good profits even for a living.
- A lot of perseverance in times when you face variance for a longer period.
Sports betting for a living could seem very fun as a lifestyle and income source. You don’t have a boss, you can wake up anytime, and you can do whatever you want.
But taking it seriously and living only from the betting winnings can make it less interesting.
Earning from tennis betting enough for a living can be a very stressful process.
You will face several weeks without any significant income. It really can happen because variance is not on your side every time.
To be a professional “bettor” in tennis, your main goal should be to learn enough from players and the trends in this sport.
Value betting is a very good strategy for tennis, you will find a lot of wrong odds and wrong lines on total or handicap bets.
You can take advantage of them, but a lot of experience is needed to make betting on tennis for a living possible.
Let me explain why:
Betting strategies like value betting can be practiced easily in team sports without too deep of knowledge about the sport itself.
But in tennis, your winnings can be increased significantly if you are experienced.
You can find a lot of wrong odds in live betting, but based on my experience, you have to take into consideration the stage and trend in the match.
For example:
- I see a lot of “wrong” odds on the markets of the serving player. Pinnacle is giving small odds for the next game server, while at my soft bookmaker
- I see an odd way higher for that player
- A scanner service will display that odd for a good opportunity.
- It’s true that for arbitrage betting that odd can be a gold mine. But if your main activity is to make a living with Value betting, most of the time, you don’t mix up strategies.
There are examples when a player seems to be in a very bad physical or mental state.
These states can be realized only if you are watching the stream, but they can have a major impact on your results.
