After practicing several betting strategies for many years, I can say that positive EV betting in sports betting is one of the most profitable yet fairly inconsistent strategies.
I’ve tried many EV betting tools and calculators and found positive EV bets manually as well on the most popular sports such as soccer, tennis, and basketball.
I created this article to explain how you can succeed with this strategy and which EV betting software/calculator is the best.
What does positive EV mean in sports betting?
EV in sports betting stands for Expected Value, and it means the difference between the actual, statistical probability of an outcome of a sports event and the odds/price the betting sites offer for it.
We are speaking about positive EV in sports betting when the bookies offer higher odds or betting line (in spread or handicap betting) compared to the chance of winning the outcome.
This positive EV in sports betting can appear intentionally when bookies offer a price boost for an outcome. But in most cases, overpriced markets that create positive EVs result from mistakes.
Positive EV betting explained
Positive EV betting in sports betting is when a smart bettor can spot betting outcomes with overpriced odds or wrong betting lines and take advantage of them.
EV bettors (most of us call them/us simply value bettors) focus on finding these betting opportunities when they appear as a mistake.
Focusing only on odds boost won’t generate enough volume that could make a significant profit from this strategy.
How does EV betting work?
Based on my experience, there are two ways to find and practice positive EV betting:
1. Using EV bet finders/software
It’s the most common and simple way of making money from value betting. There are hundreds of betting sites and hundreds of thousands of sports events each year.
Bettors who don’t have a deep understanding of positive EV betting should always start this technique by using the software.
I’m promoting, reviewing, and using many of these services. I don’t want to push people to opt-in for these EV bet calculators only to get a little cut from commissions.
It helps me run this site, but when I say everyone should use a premium service for finding positive EV bets, I mean it.
The bookies are getting faster and smarter in spotting and correcting wrong betting lines. 99% of smart bettors don’t stand too much chance of beating them in the long run without a proper EV betting tool.
These are scanning many betting sites, and with a well-coded algorithm, they compare odds between them and can spot overpriced markets – positive EV bets.
This process is completed in 1-4 seconds and simultaneously for hundreds of events/markets. They can display many positive EV bets before the bookies can notice it and drop the odds.
2. Finding positive EV bets manually
I’ve been practicing smart betting strategies since 2013, so I had the time to get enough experience and speak with excellent and intelligent people about betting systems.
During these years, I learned how to spot positive EV betting opportunities manually. It is possible to find or even forecast them if you know a sport well enough.
Finding positive EV bets manually is the easiest and most time-efficient when the events are in play. The odds are moving fast, and many acts can force the bookies to make mistakes.
Fast sports such as tennis or basketball are the best for finding EV bets manually. I always advise starting with software to give yourself some chance.
Bettors who have some talent for this strategy will spot new positive EV bets on certain leagues and markets even without software. This should be the point when you decide to
How do you bet on positive EVs in sports?
Sports betting on positive EV has some basic steps that should be followed in almost every case to get the most optimal results in the long run.
1. Use a positive EV bet finder
I already mentioned the importance of similar software. Some of these software have a free and premium service as well.
Based on my experience, there are two types of these services: one with limited functionality for unlimited time and one that has no restriction in functionality, but you can use them for 7-14 days.
The first type of EV bet finders can be used only to figure out the filters, bookies scanned, and the interface itself. If you want to make profits in the long run, you will need to opt-in for a premium account.
The second type of positive EV bet calculator will offer the opportunity of making enough money to opt in for a paid service.
2. Find bookies with many positive EV bets
I advise comparing slow/soft bookmakers to sharp bookies (Pinnacle in most cases or bookmaker.eu for US bettors) and including the bookies that have many mistakes and value bets.
By using these tools, you won’t know how to predict a straight win, but the more bets you can place, the faster you will beat the variance. Using more bookies means more positive EV bets placed.
3. Use a staking strategy all the time
Some money management strategies can help you reduce the risk of losing too much when facing a long losing streak. These can also increase profits when you have a winning streak.
One of the simplest ones is flat staking (having the same stake all the time) and percentage-based staking (the same % of your actual balance).
4. Don’t change the EV betting strategy too often
Not making profits for 1-2 weeks with value betting is completely normal. This phenomenon is called variance, and each value bettor will face it all the time.
Bettors who want to make money from wrong odds without covering each outcome have to face the sad truth that bad luck will come sooner or later.
It’s completely normal to lose 12-16 bets in a row while value betting. The strength of positive EV bets will shine in the long run. There is no way that you will end up in a loss if you place several hundreds of bets on overpriced odds and a good staking strategy.
How profitable is positive EV betting?
The amount you can make with positive EV betting is influenced by many factors. These factors are your initial investment, the size of the positive EV bets, the number of bets placed, and stake size.
Bettors who have access to many bookies that allow bigger stakes can make several thousands of euros/dollars monthly on average.
Someone who has a smaller starting capital and only a few bookies can take around 300 to 900 euros per month.
These numbers are not a fact, but an average positive EV bettor will make 5% – 9% in profits of the total amount of stakes wagered.
Best EV betting finder software – EV betting calculators
1. OddsJam – Positive EV bet finder USA & Canada
- OddsJam is the biggest and best developed positive EV bets software for US and Canadian bettors
- They display EV bets from over 36+ US bookies and planning to introduce more and more European betting sites as well
- They are an excellent pick both for beginner and experienced bettors as well
Check my OddsJam Review here!
Advantages of Oddsjam positive EV finder
- Best Positive EV bet finder in the US by far
- It Covers 36+ US bookies and many from Canada
- Focuses on the primary sports
- Betting guides from A to Z, both written and video format, about many strategies and positive EV betting as well
- Have direct access to odds, so they have no additional delay in displaying EV bets
- Pre-match and in-play EV bet calculator as well
Downsides of OddsJam
- Some bettors might feel their prices are too high (even though you can make over 3k USD/month with it)
2. RebelBetting EV bet finder software
RebelBetting is my second best choice when looking for a premium positive EV bet finder. The number of bookies/markets/sports they cover with a very low margin of error is making them an important tool for EV betting.
Their €79 starter pack for positive EV betting is accessible for each bettor. Not only because it’s fairly affordable compared to other services, but because of their 14-day free trial.
Check their calculator to see how much profit you can make based on your initial investment and some other factors.
Advantages of RebelBetting
- Positive EV betting software for 60+ bookies (mostly from Europe) and 13+ from the US
- 2-week free trial with a slightly limited version
- The low margin of error in displaying EV bets
- User-friendly interface
- Auto navigate to bookie (redirection tool)
- Good customer service, willing to solve issues as fast as possible
- Many betting guides for onboarding clients about EV betting as well
Downsides of RebelBetting
- No in-play positive EV bet software
- Some bookies still need to be implemented
3. BetBurger – pre-match & in-play positive EV betting calculator
BetBurger is the best and, unfortunately, the only big/premium positive EV betting software for betting in-play at European bookies.
I have been using their services for EV betting for many years. As a European bettor, I had access to many popular and small local betting sites.
They are covering most of them with an insanely fast scanner that displays positive EV bets from each possible type of sport you would need.
They also cover each relevant big betting market that is not drawing too much attention from the bookie.
Advantages of BetBurger
- Displays positive EV bets from over 190 bookies + many of their clones
- Scan some US bookies as well
- You can set up advanced filters for your needs
- There is the possibility to compare slow bookies not only to Pinnacle (as other positive EV bet software do)
- Each important betting market and sport is covered
- Displays the most EV bets compared to other services
- The best in-play EV betting software – the most accurate and fastest
- Free soft for EV bets with profits up to 2%
Downsides of BetBurger
- ly expensive for someone without experience
- Requires more experience because of the fast odds movements
- The users can experience many mistakes at weekends when there are many sports events
Conclusion on positive EV betting
Positive EV betting is the most profitable mathematical betting strategy in the long run. But bettors who want to practice this technique need to follow specific rules to protect their profitability, such as using the best EV betting software and using a proper staking strategy.
EV in sports betting means Expected Value. It is the difference between the odds or betting lines the bookmakers offer and the real possibility of the outcome. When the bookies offer a higher odd than the statistical chance of that outcome, we are speaking of a positive EV.
After using this strategy for several years, I can say from my own experience that EV betting is the most profitable sports betting strategy compared to the other techniques I used.
Betting on positive EV bets requires software to spot overpriced outcomes, access to some trustworthy betting sites, a decent starting capital, and a proven staking strategy.