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How can I predict a football match correctly?
A lot of football fans gained an insane amount of knowledge and experience only by watching matches, researching news, and stats about players and teams.
This passion for football or any kind of sports has a lot of advantages. I know a lot of guys even among my friends who know almost every player, their strengths and weaknesses too.
Most of these sports fans are not taking any advantage of this massive knowledge they gathered through the years.
Being familiar with statistics and probably with bookmakers and odds too can mean advantage over bookmakers if this experience is used in the right way.
If you are interested in sports betting and you are trying to make profits from it, you are in the right place.
I will show you several techniques and strategies that can make you guaranteed profits even in the long run.
Predicting a football match accurately is not an easy task. Even professional tipsters or experienced bettors need to follow some steps to correctly predict the winner of a match.
Knowing the teams and players
If we are speaking about predicting a football match only based on our knowledge and statistical data, the right source for information is an essential element.
Being profitable in the long run means that your betting strategy can offer more accurate possible results than the odds offered by bookmakers.
Some bookmakers are almost unbeatable in calculating the real possibility of a winner. Their odds can be so accurate that even a profit margin of 2 can be achievable for them.
This kind of bookmaker is Pinnacle Sports. Most tipsters and smarter punters are basing their strategy on the lines and odds offered by Pinnacle.
But even with these true odds, you can take advantage of your knowledge. Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of players can offer you a big advantage in live betting.
While the match is in play you can look at the stream and can check how the players are performing.
Getting professional in only some leagues
Concentrating your time and knowledge on every league and player could be a waste of time.
A lot of factors are changing rapidly, and it would take too much effort to follow every change.
A lot of professional tipsters and smart bettors are recommending learning and developing deep knowledge in a single league or in a small number of leagues.
This attitude and strategy will help you to research more statistics, watch more matches, and to find more information in that certain league.
Think about it!
If you research every information about players that will play in the future matches, and you follow the statistics too for a longer period, you will almost feel who has the bigger chance to win.
Predicting a football match is not only based on statistics, the information you find on the internet, and the true odds.
These factors are very important in the long run and will offer a strong basis for your betting strategies and your success.
But in my experience, having the knowledge and the years of experience by watching matches on stream and betting on them can offer you some kind of sense for predicting the real winner.
I’ve placed a lot of bets on basketball and I’ve watched a lot of matches in almost every league possible.
From the smallest teams to the NBA, I’ve watched all of them and after 1-2 years of betting, I started to realize that I’m gaining more and more knowledge in some leagues.
For example, my favorite leagues were German, Italian, and Spanish. Only by watching the streams and how the players perform I came to know the real value of an over/under bet.
Place less bets and focus on real value
It is based on finding odds and lines overpriced. Bookmakers are making a lot of mistakes because new information appears and they can’t be fast enough every time.
Every time they are a little bit late and they are not dropping the odds at certain markets, smart bettors are taking advantage of them.
Predicting an outcome accurately is not the right way to follow every time. Strategies based on mathematics will always outperform tipsters and experts, at least 99.99% of them.
Bookmakers can make big profits or losses depending on how correctly they can define odds. When so much money is in play, you can imagine that they will make any effort possible to make those odds as sharp as it is possible.
So, finding outcomes that are on wrong odds compared to these sharp bookmakers will guarantee a mathematical edge over the bookies in the long run.
With this betting technique, you don’t need to have too much experience and knowledge in sports. You just need to know which bookie is offering very accurate odds and have to find another one that is making mistakes compared to them.
Value betting requires a bigger volume so mathematics can increase the chance of being really profitable.
On the other hand, if you want to take picks by yourself and use these sharp odds only for guiding you need to focus on quality over quantity.
Predicting football matches or market outcomes correctly is some kind of art. A lot of bettors proved that being smarter than the bookmakers is possible.
Bookies are using algorithms for creating and offering odds. And sometimes while betting in-play you can have an advantage over them if you can spot opportunities that a bookie will realize way later.
Concentrating on these opportunities will help you generate profits in the long run. Taking bets that are holding real value is the best route if you want to predict the outcomes by yourself.
Betting in-play for more accurate prediction
In my experience beating the bookmakers, in the long run, is not an easy task.
Before the start of the match, most of them are offering odds very close to real probability. Some bookies are very sharp and the odds offered by them will be copied by most bookies.
So, after a very short time, you will find out that most bookies are offering odds very similar to each other. In pre-match betting, the real chance to remain profitable in the long run is by using bookmaker scanner services.
This way you can see any discrepancy, any difference between bookmakers. I strongly believe that in pre-match betting the only viable way of beating the bookies, in the long run, can be based on mathematics.
Taking wrong odds will guarantee an edge over bookies and will generate profit for you.
No matter how accurately you can predict an outcome, bookmakers have more resources. They can use it to analyze matches and to gather every information about players and teams.
This information and their profit margins are included in the odds offered so if you place bets before the match you will most probably play their game.
I’m not saying that it is possible to beat them before the match only by analyzing statistics and knowing a lot of information about the team. I’m saying that it is very unlikely to predict an outcome more accurately than most bookmakers.
If you are aiming for pre-match betting, I suggest following bookmaker scanner services and taking overpriced odds.
Betting in-play, on the other hand, will generate a lot of moments when your analysis for players and the possible outcomes can shine.
In-play betting is the best possibility for punters who want to predict matches by themselves. A lot of action, injury, cards, or goals can happen that cannot be foreseen.
These moments or trends will offer an advantage over bookmakers.
With a short example: you are analyzing a match with statistical tools. You make a conclusion that in the first half it has an 85% – 90% chance of at least 4 corners being scored.
Bookmakers are giving an odd that is too low, so placing the bet pre-match would be a waste of money.
The match starts, and you see that the teams are performing well. In the minute of 35-37 the teams have only 3 corners in total.
Based on your pre-match prediction, there should be at least 4 corners in the first half.
If you watch the stream and the teams are pushing for a goal, the playstyle is very fast and aggressive. They have a lot of dangerous attacks, you can foresee that a new corner is very possible.
Taking the right odds at this moment is very crucial. Even the best and most accurate prediction can lead to a long-term loss if the odds were not high enough.
Taking odds above 1.70 – 1.80 will guarantee that you can recuperate a possible loss fairly fast without risking having too long losing streaks.
Know the line-ups and the players
Placing bets only based on your prediction CAN be profitable. I personally know bettors, very successful in the long term too. It’s only because they have a lot of knowledge and they know how to analyze statistics.
The more you know about a team and about players, the more correct predictions you can have. Analyzing statistics before the match most of the time is based on historical data.
A lot of the time these statistics are not including the present lineups and injured players or the ones not playing.
If you are following statistics like this, you can have a big surprise when even the “best bet” won’t be a winner. Some players can have a big impact on the chances to win an outcome.
This is a big reason why the odds are moving so much right before the match. Bookmakers are getting the line ups and the chances can change a lot.
This is another reason why I highly recommend taking bets only in-play. If you have enough knowledge about players, you can make conclusions about pre-match analyzes.
You can learn how accurate those predictions were and you will have more chances to make the right choices.
Researching information about injury lists, missing player lists or any vital info, like changes in the team management will have a big impact on your success.
Knowing this information before the start will help you to predict more correctly the outcomes after using statistical software too.
Know the motivation of teams
On the other hand, the motivation to win a match can lead to big differences between teams.
Most prediction sites and softwares are not taking this into consideration, which will have a big impact on your results.
If a team has already got enough points to easily win the championship, most probably their playstyle won’t be so aggressive.
Some teams for example, from time to time don’t have enough financial resources to pay their players.
Think about it, would you give 100% of your power and knowledge in a match when your salary wasn’t paid for several months?
Well, some committed and professional players are still playing at 100%, but a lot of them can lose their motivation.
A simple statistical site won’t include this information in their predictions, which will cause big differences in results.
Use proper prediction services for statistics
Statistics and historical data are the basis for any kind of prediction in sports betting. The odds and the lines are generated basically from this data.
The more accurately you want to predict an outcome, the more and better statistics you will need. You can find a lot of services that are offering graphs and data about players and teams.
Most of them are very useful and can give you the right direction. But some services are offering even more tools that will give you an advantage over bookmakers.
The volume of data can be very different between services. Some of them are offering numbers only for a few years while others can be an important part of your betting activity.
The more in-depth information a service can offer, the higher chances you will have to accurately predict an outcome and remain profitable in the long run.
Which site can predict football matches correctly?
In my experience before the start bookmakers are the best at predicting the outcome of a match.
As I already mentioned some of them like Pinnacle Sports or bettors on exchanges like Betfair can predict the outcomes more accurately. Both platforms contain odds that are close to real possibility.
If you find sites that are offering tips and predictions with odds very close to their true probability (at sharp bookmakers) you can have a chance to beat the bookmakers.
But honestly, I would suggest stopping following these kinds of services. A lot of them were created only for the purpose of getting clients and to generate money.
The best route to follow is using applications or websites that are offering statistical data and alert services based on overpriced markets.
If you are betting as a hobby, then following prediction sites and tipsters is a viable option. But when your intentions are to generate profits in the long term too. That’s why a betting activity based on mathematics is the real key to success.
I’ve been betting for almost 8 years and in my experience, my strategies are as successful as my sources of data.
And to be honest, these days the most accurate data seems to be the one offered by programs and robots. If their algorithms are functioning properly, then you can expect a growing income.
How do you predict a match and win?
Predicting outcomes can have other roles than winning a bet. For several betting strategies, like Betfair scalping or sports trading, predicting the possible winner can generate profits in a different way.
These strategies for example are based on small odds movements. A lot of bettors can make a living from knowing which market is most likely to win and this will offer them an edge.
Betting on markets when we expect the odds to drop can generate only small amounts of profits if we are closing our bets in time.
But correctly predicting which side of a market will drop in a shorter period is not an easy task. Betfair scalpers and traders have a fair knowledge about trends, statistics, and techniques to generate small profits from these odds movements.
These small 3 – 5 dollars on each trade can add up to a decent income if you take into consideration that placing 20 – 30 trades a day is normal for an experienced bettor.
Sports betting is offering numerous ways of winning a lot of money.
The main reason for failing to profit from this great opportunity is not following proper strategies based on mathematics and not having the right money management system.
A proper staking strategy will make the difference between very successful and smart bettors and an average one.
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