Dropping odds strategies based on wrong betting lines and odds are the most simple yet guaranteed route for successful betting.
I have been successfully using dropping odds strategies for almost 8 years.
In this guide you will learn about:
- The main element of dropping odds strategies
- The most profitable techniques
- Simplest dropping odds strategies.
Best dropping odds strategies
It is important to mention that only a small group of bettors are profitable in the long run.
Approximately 2% – 4% of punters can remain profitable, and most of their strategies are based on mathematics.
The following strategies are based on odds movement and odds dropping:
In my experience, value betting is the most profitable dropping odds strategy by far. Having a ROI over 12% with live value betting is more than achievable.
Identifying odds that are overpriced is the basis of long-term profits.
Value betting is similar to the strategies below, except that you aren’t necessarily predicting which odds will drop.
If you can find odds and lines that are wrong/overpriced, based on mathematics, you will end up in profits in the long run.
I have been using this strategy for many years.
Value betting is based on finding outcomes that have overpriced odds or wrong betting lines.
The odds of these outcomes will drop eventually because the bookies will figure out the mistake.
Your task is to spot these opportunities before the odds would move.
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Requires: access to Bet365 account for live stream, PC (preferably with two screens), fast internet connection.
In both cases, you need to set up filters to compare your local bookie to sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports.
If you can constantly bet on odds that are higher than the lines at Pinnacle (they will drop in a very short time), you can beat the bookmakers and make long-term profits.
2. Matched Betting
Matched betting is the simplest dropping odds strategy and tens of thousands of bettors have already took advantage of it.
It’s not as strictly related to dropping odds, but more like on odds differences between bookies.
By covering both outcomes on a market (1 at the bookie with the bonus and the other outcome at another bookie) you can complete the bonus rollover requirements without risking your funds or the bonus.
I’m including this technique as an odds-dropping strategy because in most cases one of the outcomes is offering a slightly overpriced odd.
And as I already mentioned, these odds will drop sooner or later.
3. Arbitrage Betting
It is offering a basis for matched betting by taking advantage of overpriced odds. This technique is also risk-free and can offer a consistent profit for a long time.
If you can spot wrong odds at your bookmaker, with arbitrage betting you can place a bet on it and cover the other outcome at another bookie.
With the right stakes, you can realize a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome.
Arbitrage betting is the surest technique to profit from odds that are wrong and eventually will drop.
You can harvest those mistakes before the bookie can spot them.
More info and my guide here: Is arbitrage betting possible?
You can also check my article on the best arbitrage betting software which help you find overpriced odds before they could drop.
4. Betfair trading and scalping
Identifying odds that will drop needs some experience, but if you have the knowledge you can generate a good income from it.
But if you can correctly predict odds that go on to settle (pre-race or pre-game) at lower odds than you placed in your bet, then what you have is “value” and will offer long-term profits.
You can read more about the topic in the following articles:
Odds movement strategy basics
Making money from sports betting is getting harder and harder these days.
This strategy of betting on odds movement is based on finding matches where the odds dropped or will drop significantly.
You can spot these by comparing your local bookies to lines at sharp bookmakers.
The smart bettors have to find a bookmaker that is slower to react to these changes and at those bookmakers, you can take the advantage of placing the bets with higher odds.
Most smart bettors are using Pinnacle for defining the sharp odds and lines.
A smart bettor should make a profit in the long run if the bets placed were on higher odds than at Pinnacle.
In pre-match betting, the closer the starting time of the match is, the odds are sharper at Pinnacle.
Defining the real probability of a market or an outcome of a sporting event gets more accurate as the bookmakers are getting more and more information about the match.
Steps of odds movement strategies:
- Find an odds comparison site that scans the bookmakers and has a history of the odds (like OddsJam for bettors from the USA & Canada)
- Find bookmakers with sharp odds (check my Pinnacle Review)
- Follow those bookmakers at the website and if you see significant odds dropping (more than 8% – 10%) at sharp bookmakers ->
- Check if at your bookmakers the odds are still unchanged, not dropped
- Bet on them, if the odds are good
I have several articles covering betting strategies based on odds-dropping and overpriced markets.
What do dropping odds indicate?
If you are an active bettor, it’s not uncommon to see massive odds movements.
Dropping odds can indicate many changes. Most of the time the following factors play a big role in odds movements:
1. Significant changes in team lineups, physical state, and circumstances
When the circumstances in a sports event change, the possibility of the outcome is also changing.
The bookies are trying to mirror this change by changing their betting lines and dropping/increasing odds.
Common changes might be a team lineup that is missing key players.
This can drastically influence the playstyle of a team.
Or new information about a tennis player who seems to have minor/major injuries.
Every time the bookies get this kind of information, they need to build these into odds.
2. Dropping odds because of increased betting volume
Some betting markets and outcomes are more popular.
These get more attention and more bets with higher stakes.
This high volume on certain markets can mean several things: an overpriced market, some famous tipster giving a tip for that outcome, a famous match, etc.
In these situations, the bookmakers need to adjust and sometimes even significantly drop the odds of these outcomes.
By this, they are reducing the risk of having too many bets on one outcome.
By offering lower odds they are motivating bettors to pick the other outcome.
How to use dropping odds?
I assume you want to profit from these odds movements if you are here.
Fortunately, you can access many odds comparison services and betting strategies based on these odds movements.
Some can generate almost 100% risk-free profits (I say almost because we are humans and make mistakes).
The most important thing we need to understand is that if an outcome is overpriced, and has higher odds than the chance of winning it, someone will notice this.
If you are using the right tools, spotting odds that will drop is very simple.
Some bookies are better at figuring out the real possibility of an outcome than their competitors.
Your only task is to find these bookies and compare their odds to slower and less accurate bookmakers
How to learn a dropping odds strategy?
- Most of the markets at sports events are easy to learn, like 1×2, over/under goals or corners, next goal or corner. But some markets are not so obvious to everyone. For example, a goal handicap of -0.25 is not so simple to understand.
- In order to know your chances and bet smart, you need to research and learn every market you may bet on. This way you can avoid some of the beginner mistakes that could cost you a lot.
- Deep knowledge in smart sports betting needs time and experience. You have to be patient and pay attention to trends. If you are watching enough of a sport and betting on it after a period of time you will notice that you can foresee the dynamic of that player or team.
- This kind of trend I experienced in tennis or basketball betting. If you have enough experience, you can notice when a player is getting tired or getting enraged. These moments are the easiest ones to make smart money on.
A small example of placing smart bets on tennis:
I saw a lot of tennis matches where one of the players was tired and nervous.
One of my easiest money on tennis was a sad moment for the player.
She got nervous after losing several games and started to cry.
On the stream, I saw it clearly that the eyes of the lady were full of tears. In these moments if you want to make good profits you have to act fast.
I placed bets against that tennis player. Winning those smart bets was not a surprise at all.
How to bet smart and win at Sports Betting?
The best and smartest way of betting on sports to make a profit is to always search for the best odds possible on each market (that are also above the real possibility of that outcome) and bet on them.
Mathematically speaking, by finding the best odds possible you are increasing the chance of being a profitable sports bettor in the long run.
Diving deeper into smart betting I learned that there are a lot of smart betting strategies that can increase profits in the long run.
In the following I will mention the most common and easy steps and strategies, so you can start your smart betting or loophole activity like courtsiding.
Odds-dropping strategies with the help of bookmaker scanners
This odds-dropping strategy is similar to the ones I already mentioned.
You can find several scanner services that are scanning both sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers (they are the ones with the most mistake in defining odds).
How are bookmaker scanners working?
Bookmaker scanners, or by other names arbitrage scanners are getting odds from a lot of bookmakers.
These betting analysis tools are comparing odds between bookmakers.
If they find a fair difference between odds, the scanner will display that match and the market.
These scanners are a big base and help smart bettors like arbitrage bettors, and value bettors.
Using these arbitrage scanners you can reach faster these smart betting opportunities at the wrong odds.
For beginners, the easiest way of starting arbitrage betting is by subscribing to services, that offer pre-match (before the event starts) arbitrage opportunities.
This is the best way to start getting experience because the odds are moving slowly.
You will have more time for calculating stakes and placing the bets.
Make a difference between gambling and smart betting
If you are reading this article, I’m assuming that you are trying to leave the gambler style of betting or you just started to take sports betting seriously.
This step is one of the most important for being profitable in sports betting.
Understanding that we have to follow some rules to beat the bookmakers is essential.
Bookmakers are generating odds after a well-defined system in order to make a profit on them.
Gambling, in general, can boost your adrenaline level while you are watching your favorite matches.
This kind of feeling can cause gambling addiction for example to a lot of people.
In order to make money from sports betting, we need to make a difference between gambling addiction and smart betting on sports.
Placing bets on sports based on mathematics and statistics means the real difference between gambling and smart betting.
Bet smart, leave out your feelings, and win
Being profitable in sports betting is not easy.
The biggest and most common mistake of mine is that I often let my feelings and anticipations lead me while placing bets.
Losing money on some bets, or winning too much can make you forget to follow your strategy.
Betting smart without any feeling is the only way to constantly make money from betting.
As long as you are sure, that your strategy is proven to be good in the long run, stick with it.
Why develop your dropping odds betting strategy?
In order to be successful with smart sports betting in the long run you need to learn and develop constantly.
I have several working, smart betting strategies each based on dropping odds.
Even though they are proven to be profitable periodically I am making statistics.
In these tables, containing my bets, I am making calculations and forecasts about the profitability of my betting strategy.
Bookmakers are getting smarter, so if you want to stay in the smart betting business and to be a profitable smart bettor you have to do your homework too.
Things I do to get my betting strategy better:
- Export or copy my betting history
- Make profitability calculations with different kinds of money management strategies
- Filter every kind of market and odds range to find weak spots that are not profitable
To be profitable in sports betting be the master of a sport
A lot of betting strategies do not require us to fully understand every rule of the sport we are betting on.
Arbitrage betting is one of these smart betting strategies.
In order to be confident and profitable in sports betting, we need to know properly most parts of the sport we are betting on.
Learning the rules of a sport from Wikipedia or from any website is very basic you have to do in order to bet smart and win.
What is dropping odds in football?
Dropping odds in football refers to a situation where the odds for a particular outcome in a match (such as a win, loss, or draw) are getting shorter.
This means that the odds are decreasing, and the likelihood of that outcome occurring is increasing.
Dropping odds can be an indication that there is a shift in the betting market, and can be caused by a variety of factors such as team news, injuries, or unexpected results.
Dropping odds can be useful for bettors, as they can indicate that the market is becoming more favorable for a particular bet.
Main causes the odds to drop in football?
- Team news and injuries:
The announcement of a key player being unavailable for a match can cause the odds to drop for the affected team and also increase for the opponent.
- Unexpected results:
If a team that is not expected to win a match ends up winning, odds for future matches involving that team may drop. This can happen more often at in-play tennis matches when the underdog breaks several times in a row.
- Weather conditions:
The weather can play a significant role in football matches and can affect the odds. Heavy rain or strong winds can make it harder for teams to play their usual game, which can affect the odds.
- Referee assignments:
Assignments of known strict or lenient referees can affect the odds of a match.
- Public betting:
when a large amount of money is placed on a certain team or outcome, the odds may drop to reflect the increased likelihood of that outcome occurring.
Tips to find dropping odds in soccer
- Monitor odds from multiple bookmakers:
Compare odds from different bookmakers to see if there are any significant differences. Sharp bookies such as Pinnacle are the best reference.
- Use odds comparison websites:
These websites gather odds from multiple bookmakers and display them in a clear and easy-to-compare format. They will help place several times more bets which also might have better odds.
- Follow team and league news:
Keep track of team and league news, such as injuries, suspensions, and transfer rumors, as these can affect the odds. This strategy is helpful when you risk a bigger stake in the hope of bigger returns.
- Use alerts and notifications:
Many odds comparison websites and bookmakers offer alerts and notifications that can notify you when odds change. Bookies change odds all the time.
Without a notification, you might miss important opportunities. Happened to me many times when I was looking at a video on Youtube and forgot that I need to work (place bets).
- Check odds at different times:
Odds can change at any time, so it’s important to check them regularly, including closer to the match starting time. The main strategies and successful bettors are focusing on the closing lines (players who tend to bet pre-match).
- Look for big discrepancies:
When you see big discrepancies in odds between different bookmakers, it may be a sign that the market is shifting and odds are about to drop.
Some tools are focused on tracking these drops even for a longer period. This way you can find matches that had massive odds movements even if at the moment don’t show up as arbitrage opportunities.
- Follow tipsters and experts:
Follow tipsters and experts who have a good track record of predicting odds movements, they can help you to identify dropping odds early.
Some tipsters (the premium ones) use several tools and information sources to back up their predictions. Many of these software cannot be purchased by those with a smaller betting capital.
Which are the best odds movement strategies? Summary
- Value betting:
This strategy involves identifying odds that are higher than they should be and placing a bet. When the odds move in your favor, you can then close the bet for a profit.
- Arbitrage betting:
Also known as “sure betting”, this strategy involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of a match at different bookmakers to guarantee a profit.
- No risk matched betting:
Similar to arbitrage betting, this strategy involves taking advantage of free bets and bonuses offered by bookmakers to guarantee a profit.
This strategy involves placing multiple bets on different outcomes to limit potential losses in case of an unexpected outcome.
- Trend following:
This strategy involves following the odds movements and identifying patterns or trends to make predictions about future movements.
This strategy is about placing small bets and closing them quickly as soon as there is a small profit.
How often do football dropping odds appear?
Dropping odds in football can appear at any time, but they are typically more prevalent closer to the start of a match. This is because as the match gets closer and more information becomes available, such as team lineups and injuries, the odds may change to reflect this new information.
However, odds can also change during a match if there are significant events such as a goal or a red card.
Odds dropping mean intense betting activity in those markets. Dropping odds can also indicate significant changes in the event or the bookies are missing some relevant information for a while and start adjusting the lines from one moment to another. With the right strategy, you can make profits from these odds movements.
Bookmaker scanner services can spot dropping odds in time. Smart bettors can take advantage of these dropping odds opportunities and make good profits in the long run by betting on them. Bettors who can use bookie scanner services should bet and take advantage of dropping odds. It can generate even guaranteed profits.
With the right strategy and being patient, you can generate long-term profits. Techniques based on mathematics are offering this possibility.