Smart betting strategies based on overpriced markets, dropping odds, and wrong betting lines are the most simple yet guaranteed route for successful betting.
I have been betting on sports for almost 8 years. In the beginning, I was not sure why gamblers always lose. My first months of betting were a disaster and after a period of time I started asking myself:
Best dropping odds strategies
It is important to mention that only a little group of bettors are profitable in the long run.
Approximately 2% – 4% of punters can remain profitable and most of their strategies are based on mathematics.
The following strategies are based on odds movement and odds dropping:
1. Value betting – best odds-dropping strategy
Identifying odds that are overpriced is the basis of long-term profits.
Value betting is similar to the strategies below, except that you aren’t necessarily predicting which odds will drop.
If you can find odds and lines that are wrong/overpriced, based on mathematics you will end up in profits in the long run. I have been using this strategy for many years.
Value betting is based on finding outcomes that have overpriced odds or wrong betting lines. The odds of these outcomes will drop eventually because the bookies will figure out the mistake.
Your task is to spot these opportunities before the odds would move. For this, you can use value bet finders or sure bet finders. In both cases, you need to set up filters to compare your local bookie to sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle Sports.
If you can constantly bet on odds that are higher than the lines at Pinnacle (they will drop in a very short time), you can beat the bookmakers and make long-term profits.
2. Matched Betting – simplest odds-dropping strategy
It is the most basic strategy for taking advantage of betting bonuses and free bets. It’s not necessarily based on dropping odds, but more on odds differences between bookies.
By covering both outcomes on a market (1 at the bookie with the bonus and the other outcome at another bookie) you can complete the bonus rollover requirements without risking your funds or the bonus.
I’m including this technique as an odds-dropping strategy because in most cases one of the outcomes is offering a slightly overpriced odd. And as I already mentioned these odds will drop sooner or later.
3. Arbitrage Betting
It is offering a basis for matched betting by taking advantage of overpriced odds. This technique is also risk-free and can offer a consistent profit for a long time.
If you can spot wrong odds at your bookmaker, with arbitrage betting you can place a bet on it and cover the other outcome at another bookie. With the right stakes, you can realize a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome.
Arbitrage betting is the surest technique to profit from odds that are wrong and eventually will drop. You can harvest those mistakes before the bookie can spot them.
More info and my guide here: Is arbitrage betting possible?
4. Betfair trading and scalping
But if you can correctly predict odds that go on to settle (pre-race or pre-game) at lower odds than you placed in your bet, then what you have is “value” and will offer long-term profits.
You can read more about the topic in the following articles.
Odds movement strategy basics
Making money from sports betting is getting harder and harder these days. This strategy of betting on odds movement is based on finding matches where the odds dropped or will drop significantly. You can spot these by comparing your local bookies to lines at sharp bookmakers.
The smart bettors have to find a bookmaker that is slower to react to these changes and at those bookmakers, you can take the advantage of placing the bets with higher odds.
This kind of smart betting is also called value betting.
Most smart bettors are using Pinnacle (Pinnacle Sports Review) bookmaker for defining the sharp odds and lines. A smart bettor should make a profit in the long run if the bets placed were on higher odds than at Pinnacle.
In pre-match betting, the closer the starting time of the match is, the odds are sharper at Pinnacle. Defining the real probability of a market or an outcome of a sporting event gets more accurate as the bookmakers are getting more and more information about the match.
Steps of odds movement strategies:
- Find an odds comparison site that scans the bookmakers and has a history of the odds (like OddsJam for bettors from the USA & Canada)
- Find bookmakers with sharp odds (check my Pinnacle Review)
- Follow those bookmakers at the website and if you see significant odds dropping (more than 8% – 10%) at sharp bookmakers ->
- Check if at your bookmakers the odds are still unchanged, not dropped
- Bet on them, if the odds are good
I have several articles covering betting strategies based on odds dropping and overpriced markets. My in-depth arbitrage betting guide and value betting guide can offer every information you need to start making money from dropping odds.
What do dropping odds indicate?
If you are an active bettor, it’s not uncommon to see massive odds movements. Dropping odds can indicate many changes. Most of the time the following factors play a big role in odds movements:
1. Significant changes in team lineups, physical state, and circumstances
When the circumstances in a sports event change, the possibility of the outcome is also changing. The bookies are trying to mirror this change by changing their betting lines and dropping/increasing odds.
Common changes might be a team lineup that is missing key players. This can drastically influence the playstyle of a team.
Or new information about a tennis player who seems to have minor/major injuries. Every time the bookies get this kind of information, they need to build these into odds.
2. Dropping odds because of increased betting volume
Some betting markets and outcomes are more popular. These get more attention and more bets with higher stakes.
This high volume on certain markets can mean several things: an overpriced market, some famous tipster giving a tip for that outcome, a famous match, etc.
In these situations, the bookmakers need to adjust and sometimes even significantly drop the odds of these outcomes. By this, they are reducing the risk of having too many bets on one outcome.
By offering lower odds they are motivating bettors to pick the other outcome.
How to use dropping odds?
I assume you want to profit from these odds movements if you are here. Fortunately, you can access many odds comparison services and betting strategies based on these odds movements.
Some can generate almost 100% risk-free profits (I say almost because we are humans and make mistakes).
The most important thing we need to understand is that if an outcome is overpriced, and has higher odds than the chance of winning it, someone will notice this.
If you are using the right tools, spotting odds that will drop is very simple. Some bookies are better at figuring out the real possibility of an outcome than their competitors.
Your only task is to find these bookies and compare their odds to slower and less accurate bookmakers
How to learn a dropping odds strategy?
- Most of the markets at sports events are easy to learn, like 1×2, over/under goals or corners, next goal or corner. But some markets are not so obvious to everyone. For example, a goal handicap of -0.25 is not so simple to understand.
- In order to know your chances and bet smart, you need to research and learn every market you may bet on. This way you can avoid some of the beginner mistakes that could cost you a lot.
- Deep knowledge in smart sports betting needs time and experience. You have to be patient and pay attention to trends. If you are watching enough of a sport and betting on it after a period of time you will notice that you can foresee the dynamic of that player or team.
- This kind of trend I experienced in tennis or basketball betting. If you have enough experience, you can notice when a player is getting tired or getting enraged. These moments are the easiest ones to make smart money on.
A small example of placing smart bets on tennis: I saw a lot of tennis matches where one of the players was tired and nervous.
One of my easiest money on tennis was a sad moment for the player. She got nervous from losing several games and started to cry.
On the stream, I saw it clearly that the eyes of the lady were full of tears. In these moments if you want to make good profits you have to act fast.
I placed bets against that tennis player. Winning those smart bets was not a surprise at all.
How to bet smart and win at Sports Betting?
The best and smartest way of betting on sports to make a profit is to always search for the best odds possible on each market (that are also above the real possibility of that outcome) and bet on them.
Mathematically speaking, by finding the best odds possible you are increasing the chance of being a profitable sports bettor in the long run.
Diving deeper into smart betting I learned that there are a lot of smart betting strategies that can increase profits in the long run.
In the following I will mention the most common and easy steps and strategies, so you can start your smart betting or loophole activity like courtsiding.
Smart betting with the help of bookmaker scanners
This smart betting strategy is similar to the odds-dropping one. You can find several scanner services that are scanning both sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers (they are the ones with the most mistake in defining odds).
How are bookmaker scanners working?
Bookmaker scanners, or in other names arbitrage scanners are getting odds from a lot of bookmakers. These betting analysis tools are comparing odds between bookmakers.
If they find a fair difference between odds, the scanner will display that match and the market.
These scanners are a big base and help smart bettors like arbitrage bettors, and value bettors. Using these arbitrage scanners you can reach faster these smart betting opportunities at the wrong odds.
For beginners, the easiest way of starting arbitrage betting is by subscribing to services, that offer pre-match (before the event starts) arbitrage opportunities.
This is the best way to start getting experience because the odds are moving slowly. You will have more time for calculating stakes and placing the bets.
Make a difference between gambling and smart betting
If you are reading this article, I’m assuming that you are trying to leave the gambler style of betting or you just started to take sports betting seriously.
This step is one of the most important for being profitable in sports betting. Understanding that we have to follow some rules to beat the bookmakers is essential.
Bookmakers are generating odds after a well-defined system in order to make a profit on them.
Gambling, in general, can boost your adrenaline level while you are watching your favourite matches. This kind of feeling can cause gambling addiction for example to a lot of people.
In order to make money from sports betting, we need to make a difference between gambling addiction and smart betting on sports.
Placing bets on sports based on mathematics and statistics means the real difference between gambling and smart betting.
Bet smart, leave out your feelings, and win
Being profitable in sports betting is not easy. The biggest and most common mistake of mine is that I often let my feelings and anticipations lead me while placing bets.
Losing money on some bets, or winning too much can make you forget to follow your strategy. Betting smart without any feeling is the only way to constantly make money from betting.
As long as you are sure, that your strategy is proved to be good in the long run, stick with it.
Why develop your dropping odds betting strategy?
In order to be successful with smart sports betting in the long run you need to learn and develop constantly. I have several working, smart betting strategies each based on dropping odds.
Even though they are proven to be profitable periodically I am making statistics. In these tables, containing my bets, I am making calculations and forecasts about the profitability of my betting strategy.
Bookmakers are getting smarter, so if you want to stay in the smart betting business and to be a profitable smart bettor you have to do your homework too.
Things I do to get my betting strategy better:
- Export or copy my betting history
- Make profitability calculations with different kinds of money management strategies
- Filter every kind of market and odds range to find weak spots that are not profitable
To be profitable in sports betting be the master of a sport
A lot of betting strategies do not require us to fully understand every rule of the sport we are betting on. Arbitrage betting is one of these smart betting strategies.
In order to be confident and profitable in sports betting, we need to know properly most parts of the sport we are betting on.
Learning the rules of a sport from Wikipedia or from any website is very basic you have to do in order to bet smart and win.
Odds dropping mean an intense betting activity in those markets. Dropping odds can also indicate significant changes in the event or the bookies are missing some relevant information for a while and start adjusting the lines from one moment to another. With the right strategy, you can make profits from these odds movements.
Bookmaker scanner services can spot dropping odds in time. Smart bettors can take advantage of these dropping odds opportunities and make good profits in the long run by betting on them. Bettors who can use bookie scanner services should bet and take advantage of dropping odds. It can generate even guaranteed profits.
With the right strategy and being patient, you can generate long-term profits. Techniques based on mathematics are offering this possibility.