Odds Expected Value Calculator: +EV Calculator

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EXPECTED VALUE:
EV in %:

How does the odds +EV calculator work?

  1. You need to use the decimal odds format (here is my Odds Converter if you are used to American or Fractional odds)
  2. In the overvalued odds box you insert the odds from your local betting site.
  3. Sharp odds same outcome: you need to insert the odds for the same outcome from a sharp/accurate betting site. I advise using Pinnacle. Here is my Pinnacle Sports Review with the reasons why I think they are the sharpest bookie.
  4. Sharp odds of the other outcome: The odds for the other outcome, from an accurate bookie like Pinnacle.

How Expected Value is calculated?

  • You need to introduce odds for both outcomes from a sharp bookie. This way the EV calculator is capable of defining the true odds for these markets by excluding the house edge.
  • Other available odds EV calculators ask you to insert the true probability of an outcome. For this, you will need to use a different tool in order to figure out this number.
  • Here you will simply insert the overpriced odd you want to place bets on, and the odds from a sharp bookie for the same outcome.

This tool can be extremely helpful for bettors when searching for value betting software.

By making the calculations yourself, you can figure out if their way of defining Positive Expected Value aligns with your strategy or not.

How do you calculate the true positive EV (expected value) of odds?

The formula to calculate the expected value of odds is as follows:

(True probability of the outcome * Profits of the bet if win) – (True probability of the other outcome * Initial stake on the bet)

Example for odds EV bet calculation:

  • Overpriced odds: 1.80
  • Stake: $100
  • Sharp odds same outcome: 1.58 -> without bookie edge: 1.632 -> True probability: 0.613 (value rounded up)
  • Sharp odds another outcome: 2.50 -> ~2.58 without bookie edge -> True probability: 0.387 (value rounded up)

Overpriced odds EV (expected value) = (0.613 * 80) – (0.387 * 100) = $10.34

What does EV mean in odds?

In the world of sport betting odds, EV stands for “Expected Value.”

Expected value is a concept used in probability theory and gambling to determine the average outcome of a bet over a large number of simulations/samples.

The expected value of the odds represents the long-term average return you can expect from placing the same bet multiple times.

A positive expected value of an odd indicates that, on average, you can expect to make a profit from the bet, while a negative expected value suggests a loss.

In the context of sports betting, the expected value helps bettors to identify betting opportunities with an advantageous return on investment (ROI) over the long term.

It is important to mention and understand that even a positive expected value does not guarantee a particular outcome.

It serves as a guide and possibility for long-term returns.

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FAQ

How do you calculate EV odds?

The formula to calculate the expected value of odds is as follows:
(True probability of the outcome * Profits of the bet if win) – (True probability of the other outcome * Initial stake on the bet).

What does EV mean in odds?

EV, or Expected Value, in betting odds represents the long-term average return from a bet. It helps bettors identify opportunities with a favorable return on investment (ROI) over time.

How do you calculate the value of odds?

The formula to calculate the value of odds is as follows:
(True probability of the outcome * Profits of the bet if win) – (True probability of the other outcome * Initial stake on the bet).

I have been a professional sports bettor since 2013. I gained the most experience with the strategies: matched betting, arbitrage betting, and value betting. Each betting software and strategy I present here was tested or used by me for an extended period.