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Moving to a new betting strategy?
In this topic I would like to brainstorm about the occasions, when you should think about putting away a strategy and searching/using a new one.
In the first place I will discuss it regarding value betting. While betting, from time to time, you can experience longer periods, when you can’t make money from your betting strategy. Even though you are following all of your rules, your balance is not growing or even getting smaller.
What is the next step if you don’t win in sports betting?
If you had a big sample of data for statistics, depending on strategy it can be 200 bets or even more than 1000 bets, and based on statistics you can’t figure out what is the problem, you could have the following problem:
- One of the bookmakers has developed something at lines or odds.
Most of the betting strategies are based on comparing odds and lines between bookmakers. These strategies require a bookmaker to be ‘sharp’ at defining real probability of events.
There is a chance that the sharp bookmaker has changed something, like how they define an odd, how fast they are at getting information from matches or lowering odds (increasing their margin of profit).
What can an arbitrage bettor do if the bookmaker changed the odds?
Most of the time it takes some time for the bettor to realize the change the bookmakers made. In these cases it can take even weeks until you draw you conclusion that what you are facing is not a simple variance.
In these cases most of the time I’m making a database and I’m examining it to get the conclusion if it is worth the time to try it for some more time, or it is better to pause that strategy and start a new one.
When to move to a new arbitrage betting strategy?
In Arbitrage betting the point of moving to a new strategy could be running out of bookmaker accounts or realizing that your knowledge and bank is enough for value betting. Both of those cases are a sign to move on.
I hope I helped someone with this short brain storming. If you have any question, feel free to write a comment below.
Which betting strategy is the best for your bankroll?