A good foundation for successful smart betting is learning Value betting strategies and tips from those with experience. Value betting is one of the best smart betting strategies for making guaranteed money in the long run. If you are not familiar with value betting, you can find a guide here.
Before getting into value betting tips and strategies let’s speak about how to identify value betting opportunities.
Finding real value bets is not a simple task. You have to find odds at your bookmakers that are higher than their real chance for winning it.
A lot of services are offering to scan bookmakers for value bets. Using these services will help you a lot and making your own filters and selections can mean the difference between a normal value bettor and a successful one.
For a good value betting strategy, you need a lot of experience, and deep knowledge about the sport you are betting on.
Most of the value betting services are providing so good betting opportunities, that you don’t even need to know the sport so well.
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Value betting strategy by using services
Value betting services are based on scanning soft and sharp bookmakers. The odds from a soft bookmaker (the one that makes the most mistakes) are compared to sharper bookmakers (those with the ability to define true odds in the best way).
These scanner services are based on historical data and the odds from those sharp bookmakers.
They are displaying every outcome and odds at soft bookmakers that have a mistake big enough compared to sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle or betting exchanges like Betfair.
Comparing soft bookmaker odds to more than one sharp odds will increase the chance of finding true value bets. These scanner services are displaying a lot of value bets with different sizes of value and a big variety of odds.
Your task as a smart bettor is to identify the best odds range and staking strategy to maximize your profits. On the other hand, I think it is very important to gain experience in markets that are unprofitable.
In some cases, even sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle bet can’t define true probability on smaller markets or sports like esports for example.
Value betting strategies can be bookmaker and even bettor-specific. Each person has their own betting and staking habits that are influencing their income.
How do you pick a value bet?
It is very hard to find working value strategies on the internet, but here are some tips to put you on the right track:
- Placing value bets on odds between 1.40 – 3 can reduce your variance. The higher odds you use, your variance will increase more.
- If you are placing bets before starting the event, the closer the starting time you have, the more accurate odds you will find at sharp bookmakers
- Avoid small leagues even with good value bet opportunities. Bookmakers will limit your account later
- Create a database from your bets and make calculations. Filter the bets and find the worst and the best odds and markets (you need a big sample to get accurate results, more than 1000 bets)
- If the services are displaying big value bets, it could mean that the sharp bookmakers have got some very reliable information about the match. Their analysis could lead you to take the bet thinking that you are placing a big value. However, in reality, it is very possible that your bet will be almost a guaranteed loss. These bets are called value traps.
- Use a good staking strategy that will reduce your variances. In the long run, a good money management strategy can mean the difference between an average income and a good profit.
Value betting strategy with software, robots, or on other name bots
Placing value bets with automated scripts is already the present and will be the future too. Many software developers have developed software that are placing bets without the need for human interaction.
There are many bot types, and they can follow different betting strategies. Some of them are getting value betting tips from scanner services and placing the bets automatically.
Other more advanced softs are calculating the true possibility themselves without the need for external services. Value betting strategies placed by bots have many advantages.
The biggest one is the possibility of human error not existing. The robots are placing those bets every time after certain criteria without any feelings.
If you are following a profitable betting strategy with the right filters and a good staking strategy a betting bot can outperform a person. And while the bot is placing bets, you don’t need to be in front of the computer.
Value betting strategy based on the manual searching
Value betting with the help of scanning services is the easiest way of starting without experience. On the other hand, finding wrong odds or wrong lines manually is one of the hardest.
A bettor who wants to find value bets without the help of services needs to have enough experience to define the correct odds for certain outcomes.
Being able to do this, you need years of experience in smart betting and deep knowledge about the sport. One way of finding values manually is the same tactic as the services are using.
Comparing odds and lines to sharp bookmakers to see which outcome has wrong odds is still a viable technique. In many situations comparing odds to sharp bookie odds is not enough. Even the sharp bookies are making mistakes.
To make money from manual value betting strategies you need a good understanding of statistical modeling, mathematics, and smart sports betting techniques. Another strategy to find value bets manually is by becoming professional in one sport.
Learning every aspect of it, learning about players, teams, and leagues can get you to a level where you can define odds better than the bookmakers. Not on every market, but in some leagues and markets it is possible to become professional.
This level of knowledge is very hard to learn, and you need very good analytical thinking to find opportunities. Value betting strategies based on manual search have a big advantage over the ones based on paying services.
You have a big chance that your bets are not shown in those services so the bookmakers are less likely to flag your account for smart betting activities. I think tennis is the best sport for learning a lot and getting professional.
The number of players and influencing factors is not as big as in football or basketball. On the other hand, I think taking this route of value betting is not the best for beginners.
Being professional in one sport is taking a lot of time, and I think the best way to learn this kind of value betting strategy is by betting with the help of services.
On the road of betting, you will notice trends and mistakes in many markets and sports.
These mistakes oftentimes can guarantee you a good income source without the risk of getting limited. The best value betting opportunities are those that cannot be scanned and displayed by services.
Value betting strategies and tips against variance
If you are interested in value betting, the first thing you need to learn is that this betting strategy is different from matched betting and arbitrage betting. Those are offering a constant growth of your balance and your income.
On the other hand in value betting, you can experience big ups and downs named as a variance. At the end of the road, value betting is way more profitable, but we need to learn how to act when experiencing a big streak of loss.
Those who are unaware of the real potential of this betting technique can lose motivation and confidence in value betting.
If you are planning to be a value bettor, your strategy needs to be proved to be good. You need to follow it no matter how the variance is affecting you.
If you want to be profitable in the long run, building a database from your bets and filtering and analyzing them is the best solution.
Is it worth to start value betting?
If you are interested in sports betting and smart betting in general, the answer is a strong yes. No matter which value betting strategy you are following, your income can be very good depending on your experience.
Value betting is the best strategy because it is generating the most profits at a faster speed than arbitrage betting or matched betting. Value betting has its own advantages and downsides too.
One of the most important advantages is that your accounts will last longer compared to the other betting strategies.
The downside can be that you have to learn how to treat variances not just financially with staking strategies, but also mentally.
Your way of treating stress can improve in a fast way, which can have a good effect on several points of your life.
The odds from a soft bookmaker are compared to more sharp bookmakers. Placing the bets displayed by these services will guarantee an advantage over bookmakers.
The basic strategy is comparing odds with smarter bookmakers and picking the ones with the most value on them, and between odds range of 1.40 – 3
If you are interested in sports betting and smart betting in general, the answer is a strong yes.