After 8+ years of active sports betting, I have found many ways and tools to beat the bookies and win football bets mathematically.
In this article, you will find my top picks.
Some might require more effort to learn, while others are beginner friendly.
How to beat the bookies & win football bets mathematically
- Give proper attention to prediction services based on Artificial Intelligence such as Zcode Systems
- Follow the right betting tipsters – check my best tipster sites article
- Use football database of statistics – My dedicated review of a football statistics database
- Take advantage of bookie bonuses – Best bitcoin sports bonus offers
- Find odds differences between bookies – My article about odds comparison sites
- Find bets with a decent value – value betting software
- Stop using accumulator bets
- Learn about trading and betting exchanges
- Be a master of one sport
- Use a proper staking strategy
The most important thing you need to know is that every betting outcome and odds are generated based on mathematical forecasting.
These are based on historical data and available information about teams and players.
The following strategies are the best techniques to beat the bookies always or in the long run, depending on your goal.
1. Follow the right betting tipsters
The internet is full of fake tipsters, and prediction sites manipulating their results.
Even in this situation betting, and tipsters seem to be more popular than ever.
I’m sure you have already tried many Facebook groups or Instagram tipsters.
If you are lucky, you haven’t opted in for any paid subscription for these fake betting gurus.
Winning in the long run and beating the bookies with tipsters is only possible if you follow the right ones.
Most of the time, these can be found on platforms with a long and authentic background.
Beat the bookies with football predictions and tipsters
Following the profitable football tipsters only can be the easiest way to win against bookies.
Your only task is to have push notifications allowed on your phone, and when the tipster is posting a prediction, you take action.
I would like to mention that placing the bets on the same odds or even higher as they were posted is a strong profitability factor.
Many bettors are making the mistake of not betting right away, and they experience major odds dropping.
Unfortunately, a big part of bettors is placing the bets even with a big odds difference.
We need to understand and accept that beating the bookies with the help of tipsters is only possible if you can use the right odds.
Best betting tipster site for beating the bookmakers
I have tested and used Tipstrr, and I think they are the most transparent tipster platform.
Tipstrr has many verified individual tipsters who are motivated to offer quality picks.
You can also check my Tipstrr Review.
This website can be profitable only if its users are satisfied.
For this, every tipster has to be a winner and beat the bookies in the long run.
Many of them are offering predictions for free, which might be a good way to start. But if you want to get good predictions, following the profitable bettors is almost essential.
2. Use a football database of statistics
There are many sites that predict football matches correctly and businesses on the internet that offer databases of statistics.
If you are using the right tool, you can beat the bookies fairly easily.
Of course, there is no statistical tool that can help someone with no experience in this industry.
I have used two statistics tools: Zcode System and PlayThePercentage.
They are analyzing football data based on tens of thousands of matches every year.
Zcode System has an advanced way of approach to statistical sports betting.
They also get historical data from each football betting event and analyze them with Artificial Intelligence.
The betting software at Zcode System is capable of boosting your profits from your football betting strategy by offering better data-driven predictions.
It can analyze if your football betting strategy for first-half corners, goals, etc. would be profitable in the long run. This test is based on tens of thousands of matches and odds.
Play The Percentage:
Check my detailed review of this football statistics database and one of its big competitors.
After subscribing, you will get access to their betting strategy too, which:
- has generated 18 thousand Pounds sterling profits in 8 months
- based on 4000 bets
- it’s based on statistics from their site
- proved with a complete history in an Excel file – matches + stakes)
I strongly advise having a look at their services.
You can even try them for free with the one-week free trial.
But similar to other betting strategies, the one offered by PlayThePercentage can beat the bookies only in the long run.
So, do not have too many expectations from the free version.
You need to opt-in for at least 1-2 months for a healthy result.
Don’t be afraid.
Even with low stakes, you will make several times more than the subscription fee.
3. Take advantage of bookie bonuses
Bookmakers and casinos are offering bonuses for a good reason.
These are the best methods to get new customers and keep the existing ones returning.
Free bets, even deposit bonuses at bitcoin betting sites, and free spins are some of the biggest reasons many bettors become addicted.
But there are betting tricks to beat the bookies and withdraw these bonuses without risking losing them.
This betting technique is called matched betting.
Unfortunately, there is a soft bookmaker that will support and allow obvious matched betting activities.
This method allows you to beat every bookmaker, and that’s why they are „gubbing” or limiting your account if you get caught with it.
The good news for you is that you can easily stay under the radar if you are following some basic rules.
Matched betting is by far the easiest to learn that can allow and teach you how to win bets every day.
They are focusing on teaching everyone to take these free profits off the table.
You can open a free account at both of these services, and you can start learning right away, thanks to their onboarding guides and videos.
4. Find odds differences between bookies
In almost every country, many bookies have legal licenses.
You probably already noticed that there is a slight odds difference between bookies.
Arbitrage betting is a strategy based on math that is perfect to beat the bookies every time.
It’s a common act that bookies are copying odds from each other.
But many times they can’t keep up with new information. In these cases, you will experience significant differences between bookies.
It’s not uncommon that one of them is offering an odds of 1.80 for a player to win, while others can offer even 2.10 or 2.20 for the same outcome.
These sure bets are one of the oldest possibilities in sports betting to harvest guaranteed profits.
By covering both outcomes, you can always beat the bookmaker that made a mistake.
With the right stake, you can take a guaranteed profit no matter which outcome wins.
5. Find bets with a decent value
There is a betting trick that can beat the bookies in the long run, called value betting.
It is very similar to finding arbitrage bets.
The real difference between these two strategies is that in the case of value betting, you are not covering the other outcome.
Spotting betting opportunities where the odds are overpriced is also an old technique.
Many services are displaying value bets. But why can these bets generate long-term profits?
As I already mentioned, every outcome has a real probability.
Some bookies are better at figuring these true odds out.
These are called sharp bookmakers.
Pinnacle is the most famous for offering the most accurate lines on almost every market and sport.
If you can beat their lines with higher odds at your local bookmaker, you can make a healthy profit with it.
I have a dedicated article on the best value betting software.
You can see a short betting history of my basketball value betting strategy below.
You can notice fairly big variances caused by losing streaks.
But in the long run, I’m always able to beat the bookmakers with value betting.
6. Stop using accumulator bets
Parlay bets are the most famous betting type not only for bettors but for bookmakers too.
No matter what kind of betting strategy you follow, mixing it with many parlay bets, bookies will think that you are an average bettor.
Do you know why?
Because based on statistics, you have no chance of winning in the long run if you are placing only accumulator bets (except with overpriced odds).
Each odd bookmaker offers includes its profit margin.
Using accumulators, the odds are adding up, but these profit margins are too.
You might win 1-2 of these parlay bets, but in the long run, you will fail for sure.
7. Learn about trading and betting exchanges
The biggest advantage of betting exchanges and sports trading is that you don’t have to beat the bookmaker.
Your only task is to beat another bettor.
This way of betting is opening new opportunities.
In general, the odds are closer to the real probability, so winning, in the long run, is more possible.
Many bettors have made a fortune by trading on platforms like Betfair or other famous exchanges.
This technique requires more knowledge and learning about sports.
But it has a big advantage: the bookies won’t limit your account.
8. Be a master of one sport
I’ve been betting since 2013.
I have shifted from football to tennis, then back to football, and then to basketball.
I succeeded in beating the bookies on all of these sports but focused and became a professional in basketball betting.
I know certain strategies and bookie weaknesses that can be exploited even without betting software.
This kind of knowledge requires a long journey and attention.
But if you are value betting and using statistics software and databases, you can figure out some good betting tricks yourself.
If you are following for a long time, your knowledge becomes like a way to cheat in sports betting.
You will spot overvalued players or outcomes.
This kind of knowledge can give you an unfair advantage against bookies.
9. Use a proper staking strategy
Betting without a good or at least simple staking strategy will ruin your profitability in the long run.
Even a flat stake is better than using inconsistent stakes.
The results of a good money management strategy can be surprising (even more than 50%) and will mean the difference between an average losing punter and a successful one.
You can find a simulation of the most optimized and well-working staking strategies in the following article called sports betting bankroll management.
Is it even possible to beat the bookies?
The majority of bettors are not even thinking about the possibility of beating the bookmakers in the long run.
If you are reading this article, you are on the right path.
Yes, beating the bookmakers with many different betting strategies is possible.
Some are based on mathematics while others have long years of experience or statistics.
But the most important thing you need to accept is that if you want to profit from sports betting, you need to think differently to beat the bookies.
Can you ever beat the bookies?
Generally speaking, there are two kinds of approaches for winning against bookies.
The first approach is following betting techniques that can generate guaranteed profits from every bet.
The other strategy is beating the odds in the long run with different tools, software, or statistical databases.
The problem with beating the bookies is that almost everyone will make your goal harder.
The majority of them won’t let you win as much money as you want.
Beating the bookies is not a new or secret weapon of a small group.
There are hundreds of articles on the internet covering these strategies.
The downside of this open information sharing is that every bookie can access them.
So, beating the bookmakers with these strategies will be noticed every time with sophisticated betting software and algorithm.
Unfortunately, if you do not follow certain strict betting rules, you can get your account limited quickly.
Advice on how to win football bets mathematically
- Do your research:
Before placing any bets, it’s important to gather as much information as possible about the teams and players involved.
Look at statistics such as past performance, head-to-head records, and current form to gain an edge.
For example, proper research in our case would be using a tool that spots overpriced markets.
- Use a betting system:
There are several mathematical systems that can be used to increase your chances of winning.
One sports betting bankroll management technique is the Kelly Criterion, which calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and bankroll.
This combined with value betting is the best option/strategy someone can practice (personal experience).
- Shop for the best odds:
Different bookmakers will offer different odds on the same event.
Make sure to shop around and find the best odds before placing your bets.
- Be disciplined with your betting:
Set a budget for yourself and stick to it. Don’t chase losses or let emotions dictate your bets.
- Keep records of your bets:
Keep a record of your bets, including the teams, odds, and outcomes.
This will allow you to analyze your performance over time and make adjustments as necessary.
Conclusion: Tips and tricks for how to beat the bookies
- Follow the right betting tipsters
- Use football database of statistics
- Take advantage of bookie bonuses
- Find odds differences between bookies
- Find bets with a decent value
- Stop using accumulator bets
- Learn about trading and betting exchanges
- Be a master of one sport
- Use a proper staking strategy
There are many strategies based on mathematics that can beat the bookmakers with each bet placed. Some of them are matched betting or arbitrage betting. Other similar strategies can also beat the bookies.
Bettors who want to beat the bookies need to focus on mathematical betting strategies and overpriced betting odds. These offer a loophole to beat the bookies even in the long run.
The best strategies based on maths are arbitrage betting, matched betting, value betting, etc. Each of these is based on overpriced markets and odds differences between bookmakers.
Beating the bookies is possible in every sport. Each bookmaker is offering overpriced and wrong odds on every sport. You can take advantage of these by using the proper bookmaker services or statistical tools.
1. Give proper attention to prediction services based on Artificial Intelligence
2. Follow the right betting tipsters
3. Use a football database of statistics
4. Take advantage of bookie bonuses
5. Find odds differences between bookies
6. Find bets with a decent value
7. Stop using accumulator bets
8. Learn about trading and betting exchanges
9. Be a master of one sport
10. Use a proper staking strategy