5 Profitable NFL Betting Strategies & Systems in 2023

NFL betting strategies and systems based on odds comparison and historical data analysis are the surest way for profiting if you don’t have strong knowledge and serious statistics.

Best American football betting systems: NFL betting strategies

The best beginner-friendly and most profitable NFL betting strategies and systems for generating long-term profits from American football betting are arbitrage betting, matched betting, and value betting.

I’ve been an active and profitable sports bettor since 2013.

Based on my experience, your best chance to beat the bookies and win is by following betting systems that don’t require insider info, or knowing each player, etc.

Bookmakers can be so accurate at defining the odds or real probability of an outcome because they have access to an immense amount of historical data and can process these with well-developed software.

For us, simple bettors, the only real way to end up in profits, in the long run, is if we can beat the market by always picking the highest odds on each outcome and follow certain NFL betting strategies.

As I already mentioned NFL betting strategies based on experience and statistics can also be profitable.

But the best ones are based on spotting overpriced outcomes, and wrong betting lines, or by taking advantage of bookie offers.

Arbitrage betting and matched betting are the only working NFL betting strategies for winning every time and earning guaranteed profits on each of your bets.

There are other methods to win more from NFL betting, such as value betting, which I will mention immediately.

OddsJam is the most well-developed tool for matched betting in the USA. Check my OddsJam review for more info.

1. NFL betting strategy for guaranteed profits: arbitrage betting

Arbitrage betting is the easiest and most stable NFL betting system that can generate profits on each of your bets. This betting system can be used for American football as well.

Bookies are in competition with each other and in some ways even with themselves.

They are forced to offer odds that are accurate and reflect the true possibility of an outcome.

But no matter how much information they have access to, many times there is a decent odds difference between betting sites.

If this discrepancy is big enough, you can find these so-called sure bets.

The betting system called sure betting takes advantage of these mistakes by covering each outcome on a market with the right odds.

This way they create a guaranteed profit no matter the outcome of that event.

OddsJam is a well-known software and service that scans American betting sites and compares the odds in real time.

They are capable of displaying these sure betting opportunities and offer excellent data for NFL betting strategies such as sure betting.

You might want to check my OddsJam review to learn more about what they can offer in order to start your profitable betting career.

You can check my in-depth arbitrage betting article for a more in-depth guide.

For example: an NFL team normally would have a Monelyine of -200, meaning that they have a 66.7% true chance of winning the match or outcome of the market you aim.

A betting site is missing a crucial information, which happens all the time, and they are offering a Monelyine of -139 for this. This prices equals too 58.1% of Implied probability to win.

Smart bettors can take advantage of these wrong odds with the NFL betting system called arbitrage betting, mentioned above.

In this NFL betting example above, you place a bet of $100 on this team on an odd of -200 and you hedge the other outcome at another betting site on the odds of +155 (or very similar at other bookies as well) with a stake of $67.

Regardless of the outcome the football match, you make a profit of $4.5.

For many beginner bettors this profit could seem too little but this NFL betting strategy is based on placing 900-1000 similar bets in a month. Or you can place less but with higher stakes.

You can practice arbitrage betting as your NFL betting strategy but only for a side hustle, or with enough learning and gaining experience, you can do it even for a living.

For more information, you can read the following article about how to find arbitrage bets or my list of the top sure bet finders.

While arbing is an excellent betting system for American football, it’s important to mention that knowing the overtime rules in NFL, can become important in certain markets.

2. Most profitable NFL betting system: positive EV betting on American football

Value betting is the most profitable betting strategy even for NFL betting. I’ve been following this technique since at least 2018.

Positive EV bettors are focusing on finding outcomes on NFL matches that are overpriced and have a higher odds then their true probability of winning it.

This NFL betting system is based on simple mathematics and real probability.

Example:

There is a team that has a 66% chance of winning the match or the outcome you need. The majority of betting sites offer a Moneyline around -250 which also includes their profit margin.

There is a bookmaker that is missig a crucial information and offers an odd of -143 for the same outcome.

The goal for someone who practices NFL value betting is to take these wrong odds and beat the statistics and the bookies as well. We know that this team or outcome has a 66% chance of winning, so every time we take odds that are significantly higher, we gain a little edge and end up in profits in the long run.

Check my value betting guide for more info or my list of the best value betting software.

OddsJam is the best pre-match and also in-play value betting software if your want to try this NFL betting system at US bookies.

3. NFL betting system based on statistics

Winning NFL bets based on statistics is only viable if you prove that your information about the match and players are more accurate.

Your biggest advantage in NFL betting could be in following the matches while they are in-play. Taking action and spotting betting opportunities back up by statistic can give you an edge against bookies.

Example of American football betting strategy based on statistics:

• You can find a lot of databases about previous NFL matches
• Your task is to analyze them, find a database that include head to head to head stats, and find out which outcomes and happened more often
• Open the event when it is live and follow the event having in mind the stats you checked
• Each statistic data has a corresponding odds
• Check if you can spot odds or in-play statistics that confirm the previous data
• If one or both of the teams are pushing for fast results and your historical stats are confirming it but the odds are overpriced, there might be a good opportunity for betting
• Keep in mind that this NFL strategy should be based on experience and a deep understanding of statistical data and also backed up with a proper stake management system.

4. Simple American football betting strategy: matched betting

No risk matched betting is the simplest NFL betting strategy. It is based on odds comparison sites and odds differences between bookies. You might think it’s the same as sure betting. You would not be wrong but there is a little twist in this technique.

Even Crypto Bookmakers are offering welcome bonuses, Stake no return free bets, and boosted odds in order to attract the attention of potential new and returning customers. Regular bettors see bonus offers as a good starting point and a possibility of winning more.

They try to take advantage of these bonuses by placing normal bets and hoping for a winning bet.

Bonuses used this way are a big waste of opportunity. Making guaranteed profits from NFL betting strategies is possible and relatively easy but boosted with a bonus offer will make your activity in more profitable.

Besides using many bookie scanners I also tried two of the best matched betting software in the USA. Each of them offer an in-depth tutorial and guides on how to make advantage of bookie offers. It’s not big spoiler to say that OddsJam is the best in this as well if you are betting at US or Canadian bookies.

How to use matched betting for winning inf NFL betting?

• Find bookmakers with good bonus offers, I would say at least a 20-dollar free bet bonus
• Place sure bets while these bonus offers are available. This way no no matter which outcome will win, you complete the requirements and you can withdraw the bonus money (check the Terms and Conditions for that particular bonus every time, so you will use the right markets and odds).

How to calculate stakes at matched betting?

Stakes at free bets:

You have to find a matched opportunity close to 0% at least:

• An example of a 20-dollar free bet (with decimal odds in this case):
• You place 20 dollars on odds of 3.
• The stake at the odds of 1.50 : ($20 * 3 – $20)/1.50 = $26
• Team with odds of 3 wins: $20 * 3 – $20 stake – $26 stake at other outcome = $14 of profit
• Team with cover bet at the other bookmaker wins: $26 * 1.5Odd – $26 stake = $13 of profit because you get $20 money back from the lost free bet.

5. Follow NFL tipsters with a proven betting strategy

If you are reading this article, you probably already tried following NFL tipster services. Many bettors think that finding a tipster on a platform with a long and profitable prediction history is enough to support your football betting strategy.

Unfortunately, this might not be true in most cases because of the simple fact that the majority of tipsters and NFL prediction platforms can manipulate their betting history. By this, they can change a losing streak into long-term profits by simply changing stakes or deleting some bets.

If you truly want to follow successful and trustworthy NFL tipsters, you need to platforms such as Tipstrr. Here nobody can delete/manipulate their personal betting history. 

Some of these users offer NFL predictions even for free. If you can spot an upcoming skilled tipster, you can follow their activity even for free or for a very low fee (like $20).

You can also check my Tipstrr Review or my article about the best tipster with the top football tipsters included.

You can also check my most recent article about NFL alternate yardage totals betting.

Most popular American football betting systems of all time?

There are a number of NFL betting systems and strategies that have been developed to help bettors make better informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of generating profits in the long run.

Here are a few examples of very popular but not-so-accurate NFL betting systems:

1. Martingale system:
   This staking system involves doubling your bet after each loss until you eventually win, at which point you return to your original bet size.
   The idea behind the Martingale stake sizing system is that you will eventually win and recoup your losses, plus a small profit.
   I tried this strategy and my advice is to stay away from this, no matter what you read anywhere else. It’s the shortest way to losing your whole betting capital. Facing a losing streak over 13-14 bets is not so uncommon.
2. Kelly Criterion:
   The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps bettors determine the optimal size of their bets based on the probability of winning and the odds being offered.
   The goal of the Kelly Criterion is to maximize long-term profits while minimizing the risk of losing money. It’s the best staking strategy you could ever use for you NFL value bets.
3. Positive EV betting:
   this betting technique involves finding bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds being offered by the bookmaker suggest.
   The idea behind positive EV betting is to place bets on outcomes that are more likely to happen than the odds imply, which can give you an edge over the bookmaker and increase your chances of winning.
4. Head-to-head statistics:
   Some bettors use head-to-head statistics, such as past performance and the combination with present information in order to figure out the true probability of an outcome.
   Value betting on NFL with higher stakes combined with statistics might be the best American football betting system in the long run.

Conclusion: Which is the best NFL betting system?

Arbitrage betting is the best NFL/American football betting strategy for bettors who prefer taking the least risk and need a guaranteed way of generating profits. Placing sure bets only on NFL matches can offer a decent monthly profit for a very low risk.

Sure betting is best combined with matched betting in order to maximize the return on each of your NFL bets. Value betting on the other hand is the best money-generating football strategy in the long run.

With positive EV betting which is the most profitable NFL betting system, you can experience large variances. Your balance at bookmakers can grow fast to a level that you could not even imagine, but there is a statistically high chance that sometimes your balance can get to 0 after facing a longer losing streak.

FAQ