Table of Contents
Developing your sports betting strategy?
There are several ways to develop your smart sport betting strategy.
From my point of view, the following ways are the most common:
- Growing the ROI itself (return on investment)
- Growing the volume of bets
- Reducing variance
- Developing better money management
How would that be possible?
For most of them, a spreadsheet of your bets is the most simple, yet effective solution. Depending on your strategy the number of bets you need for this could be different.
A superficial check on your strategy could be enough for a sample of 200 bets, but a history of 400-600 bets I think is a must for getting a better view about the leaks and possibilities of your betting strategy.
Money management in sports betting
First of all, I will write about money management. Depending on your betting strategy, you have several staking options to check. Every time I’m developing a money management strategy in Excel, I make calculations with:
- Flat stake (same stake size for every bet, no matter what the odd or value is)
- Growing flat stake (if the balance on the account is growing I’m growing the amount of flat stake too)
- % staking (most of the time I use 5% – 8% of the balance for every bet)
- % of the balance + % of value bet (5% – 6% on normal values and bigger 6% – 8% of balance on bets with bigger value)
Some money management strategies could be more profitable, than the others. For example, growing your flat stake or growing your stake at a bigger value could mean a bigger balance at the end, but with a cost a bigger variance in your balance. Most of the time I’m making a line graph, containing all of the staking strategies, and I decide which one is the most appropriate for me.
Growing the ROI in smart betting could be solved in the following ways:
Finding markets, leagues, and odds that have a bad ROI so in the future, you can avoid betting on them. But for finding them and being sure, that it was not a simple variance, and they do not hold real value, you need a bigger sample of historical data of your bets. For this kind of statistics sometimes not even 1000-1500 bets are enough.