Top 7 Mathematical betting strategies in 2022

Mathematical betting strategies and systems are the smartest ways to generate guaranteed profit from sports betting.

Sports betting and mathematics are in a close relationship with each other. When I started betting, I followed many tipsters without any success in the long run.

I tried to research some helpful information about teams and players in the hope of winning on sports betting. After a few months, I realized that if a lot of bettors can be successful in the long run, maybe I should learn their ways.

Mathematical Betting Strategies

The most successful mathematical betting strategies are based on finding overpriced odds and betting on them with the right staking plan. The best mathematical systems for betting are matched betting, arbitrage betting, value betting, and trading.

Each of these strategies can be practised with the help of odds comparison sites. These services are scanning every relevant bookmaker and compare the odds between them.

1. Arbitrage betting

One of the least risky betting techniques is also based on these wrong odds and mathematics.

It is called arbitrage betting.

In short, the strategy stands from finding overpriced outcomes at bookmakers. Betting on them, and covering the other outcomes at other bookmakers on normal odds.

Arbitrage betting is a guaranteed way of making money from sports betting based on mathematics only, without gambling.

breakingbet arbitrage banner

Pinnacle (Pinnacle Sports Review) is the best bookmaker for covering your arbitrage bets. Their odds are the highest at the moment due to the low profit margin they work with. I’ve been using them for almost 8 years and I think I couldn’t be this successful without them.

Every time a bookmaker is making a mistake and offering an overpriced odd for an outcome, you can generate a guaranteed profit.

You might think it is hard to find these opportunities. But a lot of websites are offering scanning services.

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They are crawling almost every bookmaker to find wrong odds.

You can check the following article where you can find info about the best arbitrage bet finders.

Alternatively, my following article on how to find arbitrage bets can also be a great start with this betting technique.

But if you are looking for the best scanner for in-play betting check my BetBurger review. 

If you click on the following links, you can read my reviews about two affordable arbitrage betting scanner services.

2. Matched betting as a sports betting strategy based on mathematics

You probably already heard about matched betting.

It is one of the most beloved betting techniques with a guaranteed way of making good profits. Bookmakers are offering bonuses to attract the attention of every possible consumer.

No matter if they are gambling addicts or simple punters, their biggest goal is to make you deposit money and keep you active.

Matched bettors on the other side have developed a system to exploit these bonus offers and to convert them into real withdrawable money.

oddsmonkey matched betting win on football banner

This smart betting strategy is also based on mathematics and is very similar to arbitrage betting. The only difference here is that matched bettors are placing arbs even with free arbitrage finders with 0% return or with a little under 0%.

Wagering money this way will allow you to complete the roll-over requirements without losing money at all.

I used many services that display overpriced odds.

Here is a short summary:

3. Value betting

As I already mentioned value betting is one of the most profitable mathematical betting strategies.

The basic idea is very similar to arbitrage betting. You have to find outcomes and matches where bookmakers are making mistakes.

These opportunities will offer you an advantage over bookmakers.

The only real and sure way to beat the bookmakers is to place bets on odds where the real probability of an outcome is lower than the odds.

If you are following this simple rule, you will be profitable in the long run. I’ve been using this mathematical betting system for long years.

Betting as a living is not easy, but based on my example it is possible. Understanding the mathematics of sports betting is not simple for everyone.

arbitrage betting software

But learning strategies like value betting is the surest way to win in the long run too. You can learn more about this in my value betting guide.

The following article is my detailed RebelBetting value betting review.

They are scanning bookmakers for overpriced markets.

Their sure betting and value betting service helped thousands of bettors to generate a lot of profits.

For bettors from the US or Canada, I suggest taking a look at my OddsJam Review.

This could be your first step for making thousands a month from sports betting.

If you would like to see a more detailed comparison table of the industry-leading services, check my best value bet finder article.

4. Trading and scalping at Betfair

Both of these techniques are mathematical and guaranteed strategies to generate profits.

Thousands of bettors are successfully making a decent income from exchanges like Betfair. The biggest advantage of these strategies is sustainability.

If you are using Betfair, you don’t have to be afraid of getting limited or banned for winning too much. Unfortunately, most bookmakers don’t like winning players.

You can read my following article if you are interested in Betfair scalping.

5. Database of statistics for accurate prediction

statisticsports football statistic site banner

By using a trustworthy site with accurate statistics you can make better decisions. With a good betting and staking strategy, you can beat the bookmakers even in the long run.

I have used and tested a football statistics tool and prediction site (a cheap one) that is offering an insanely profitable long-term betting strategy too. (18 thousand Pound sterling profits in 8 months based on 4000 bets – proved with a complete history in an excel file – matches + stakes)

These statistics are displayed in percentages and based on tens of thousands of matches from the past years. 

Related article: Check my article about the best Asian handicap bookmakers

play the percentage football statistics prediction

Do you think it’s promising? Well, this is only 10% of what this site is able to offer.

Check my detailed review of this football statistics database. You can read about their competitors with even more tools, in-play notifications, and backtesting tools (test your strategy if it would work, based on historical data).

Their competitor StatisticSports offers advanced statistics, tools for in-play betting and strategy testing software. These are based on tens of thousands of football matches from the past 5+ years.

statisticsports football without loosing backtesting

The system at StatisticSports is capable of backtesting your football betting strategy. It will check if your football betting strategy for first-half corners, goals, etc. would be profitable in the long run. This test is based on tens of thousands of matches and odds.

StatisticSports is also offering in-play signals based on your pre-selected filters. You can get notified about matches that have many corners, many goals, many dangerous attacks, etc.

Even the best tipsters need to make their strategies bulletproof. These statistics and the backtesting can offer them an edge against bookies.

6. Martingale staking system

I would like to also mention some staking strategies. Back in 2013, I thought that I found the golden strategy when I started to read about this staking method. 

It is based on increasing the stakes every time you lose, depending on the previous bets. Based on my experience my advice for football betting is to forget this staking system as a possible mathematical betting strategy. 

No matter what kind of strategy you use, everybody will face a longer losing streak. With this strategy, you could end up losing your whole bank.

7. Kelly criterion staking system

Is one of the most profitable and most secure staking strategies based on mathematics. The idea behind the Kelly criterion is using stakes based on your actual balance.

For example: if you use 3-4% of your balance every time, if you start winning, your stakes will grow proportionally. This will cause massive winnings down the road.

In case you face a longer losing streak, the more you lose the smaller your future stakes will be. Kelly’s criterion is accepted as one of the most effective and safe mathematical staking strategies.

Mathematics and staking strategies in sports betting and gambling

Money management strategies are based on statistical data and mathematics. In the long run, a good staking strategy has a big effect on your winnings.

Even a bad betting or gambling strategy has a very different result if your stakes are chosen well. The role of mathematics in betting strategies is to make your future results predictable and way more consistent.

Following a staking strategy will make your variance in betting less long and smaller too. I think that the best reason for using mathematics at choosing odds and stakes is to avoid human error.

No matter what kind of betting strategy you use, if you let your feelings lead, your profits will be lower or you can end up at a loss.

Even some value betting strategies can’t guarantee good profits in the short run. But combining mathematics in the searching of odds and in the stakes too can significantly increase your advantage against bookmakers.

Feelings can change your betting behaviour, but good strategies based on statistics are profitable in every situation.

How is math used in sports betting?

Gambling and sports betting are based on mathematical and statistical calculations. Every outcome of every event in sports and in gambling has a real chance of probability.

But first of all, I would like to mention that you don’t have to be afraid of mathematics and statistics in sports betting. It may sound hard to understand, but I will only explain the basics. After that, you can easily learn how to profit from smart betting.

Bookmaker and casino payouts are based on these true chances to win a certain outcome.

Both of them are offering payouts or odds for your bets in such way that no matter if you win or lose if the sum of all bets from all players is distributed in proportion, they will make a guaranteed profit.

In sports betting, bookmakers are defining odds based on statistics. You as a smart bettor have the chance of making money on them with mathematics.

football betting statistics database Play the percentage

Mathematics in sports betting can be used in several ways.

The two ways I will mention are betting on odds with a higher value than their real probability and placing stakes based on mathematics.

How is math useful in sports?

We already know that bookmakers are generating odds mostly based on statistical data. If their odds are representing the real probability of the outcome to be fulfilled, we as sports bettors have a chance to beat their system.

The only thing that a smart bettor needs to do is to find significantly higher odds than the odds offered by the bookies.


Well, if you are taking better odds than their real chance to win, in the long run, based on mathematics you will be in profit.

A simple example will clarify what I mean here.

If there is a tennis player who wins 50% of the matches played, the odds for that player would be 2 without the margin of the bookmaker. At the bookmaker, you would see an odd between 1.85-1.93 for this player.

Based on mathematics, if you can find odds over 2 on this player, in the long run, you will be in profit. Half of your bets will be winners, but your payout on every match will be more than twice your stake.

If you place 4 bets, every one of them with odds of 2.05 and you win only two of them you will end up with a profit of 0.1 units.

This betting strategy based on mathematics is called value betting. Besides a lot of techniques for gambling, value betting is the most profitable one but needs some patience.

Value betting as a strategy based on mathematics has proved that sports betting can make you a lot of money. I think that the best way to quit a gambling addiction is not by trying to quit but by doing it in a way that generates even $100 a day profit from it.

Value betting has a downside too, which is named variance.

Mathematically speaking in sports betting the chance of winning a bet with a real probability of 50% does not mean that your every second bet will be a winner.

In a coin toss, you have 50%-50% to guess the right side of the coin that will be the upside. But in reality, you can toss the coin 5 times and you can get heads every time…and later toss it 5 times again and you will get tails.

You get it right?

You will face the same situation in sports betting too.

The mathematical chance of winning your bet will only be 50% in the long run, which means 6 bets or even 20 bets too.

If you want to be a winner in gambling your goal should be to find strategies with payouts higher than the real probability. This could seem hard to learn, but in reality, smart betting strategies are not so hard to learn.

The hardest part is to find out that there are ways to make guaranteed money from betting. That part you already completed, because you are reading this article.

Tipstrr Review

If you want to find out how to find value bets and how to learn value betting strategies, you can read these articles.

A lot of bettors already made a big amount of money from betting based on mathematics so you have to learn it and make the same.

Are mathematicians good at gambling?

I think good mathematicians have the knowledge and the intellectual ability to understand the possibilities in gambling and sports betting.

These days you can find a lot of movies about successful sports bettors and poker players or blackjack players who won a big amount of money.

Even in these movies or stories, you can learn some valuable information about the possibilities in these industries. So, the information itself about the possibilities can reach anyone. Mathematicians are in a better position compared to other people.

Their analytical way of thinking and the equations they have learned are putting them at an advantage even against bookmakers.

These facts do not mean that every mathematician is good at gambling or in sports betting. Smart sports betting for example is based on mathematics, but a successful bettor also needs to know every rule, trend, and rule of the sport used.

On the other hand, to be successful in betting I think that in some way you have to like this industry and you have to like sports in general.

So my answer would be that not every mathematician is or can be good at gambling and sports betting, but they have a big advantage while learning it.

Want to read about crypto bookmakers? Check my following article about some of the best crypto bookmakers

Interested in table tennis betting? check my in-depth article about this topic.


How is math used in sports betting?

Gambling and sports betting are based on mathematical and statistical calculations. Every outcome of each event in sports and in gambling has a real chance of probability. Math in sports betting can be used for defining the probability of an outcome and generating guaranteed profits.

How is math useful in sports?

The only thing that a smart bettor needs to do is to find significantly higher odds than the odds offered by the bookies.

Are mathematicians good at gambling?

I think good mathematicians have the knowledge and the intellectual ability to understand the possibilities in gambling and sports betting.

Mathematics and staking strategies in sports betting and gambling

Money management strategies are based on statistical data and mathematics. In the long run, a good staking strategy has a big effect on your winnings.

Sam @ Sportssmartbetting

I have been a professional sports bettor for almost 8 years. This blog was created to share my experience and knowledge. I started building up my betting capital with matched betting, followed by arbitrage betting and switched to full-time value betting. Each software and betting strategy I promote was tested or used for a longer period by myself.