Top 7 Mathematical betting strategies in 2023

Mathematical betting strategies and systems are the smartest ways to generate guaranteed profit from sports betting. In this article, you will find the methods I practiced to earn long-term profits.

Sports betting and mathematics are in close relationship with each other. When I started betting, I followed many tipsters without any success in the long run.

I tried to research some helpful information about teams and players in the hope of winning on sports betting. After a few months, I realized that if a lot of bettors can be successful in the long run, maybe I should learn their ways.

Mathematical Betting Strategies

The most successful mathematical betting strategies are based on finding overpriced odds and betting on them with the right staking plan. The best mathematical systems for betting are matched betting, arbitrage betting, value betting, and trading.

Each of these strategies can be practiced with the help of odds comparison sites. These services are scanning every relevant bookmaker and compare the odds between them.

1. Arbitrage betting

One of the least risky betting techniques is also based on these wrong odds and mathematics.

It is called arbitrage betting.

In short, this strategy is based purely on math and can be executed by finding overpriced outcomes of sports events. Betting on these wrong odds, and covering the other outcomes at other bookmakers (on correct prices), can generate a guaranteed profit each time.

Arbitrage betting is the simplest and least risky way of making money from sports betting based on mathematics only, which excludes gambling and any outcome that can lead to losing your money.

breakingbet arbitrage banner

Pinnacle (Pinnacle Sports Review) is the best bookmaker for covering the other outcome of your arbitrage bets. Their odds are the highest at the moment due to their low profit margin. I’ve been using them for almost 8 years and I think I couldn’t be this successful without their sharp lines and trustworthy on-time payments.

Every time a bookmaker is making a mistake and offers an overpriced odd for an outcome, you can generate a guaranteed profit.

You might think it is hard to find these betting opportunities due to fast-changing odds. But a lot of websites are offering scanning services.

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They are crawling almost every bookmaker to spot wrong odds and help bettors who want to follow mathematical betting strategies such as sure betting.

You can check my following article and find the best arbitrage bet finders, including free and premium ones as well.

Alternatively, my following article on how to find arbitrage bets can also be a great start for those who are interested in arbing.

But if you are looking for the best scanner for in-play betting check my BetBurger review. 

If you click on the following links, you can read my reviews about two affordable arbitrage betting scanner services.

2. Matched betting as a sports betting strategy based on mathematics

You probably already heard about matched betting.

It is one of the most beloved mathematical betting strategies with a guaranteed way of making good profits by exploiting the opportunities offered by the bookies themselves. Almost each betting site is offering bonuses to attract the attention of every possible consumer.

Whether they are gambling addicts or simple punters, their biggest goal is to make you deposit money and keep you active.

Matched bettors on the other side have developed a system to exploit these bonus offers and convert them into real withdrawable money.

oddsmonkey matched betting win on football banner

This mathematical betting strategy is very similar to arbitrage betting. The only difference here is that matched bettors are placing arbs even with free arbitrage finders with 0% return or even with a guaranteed but small loss.

Wagering money this way will allow you to complete the rollover requirements on bonuses without risking losing your funds or the bonus itself.

I used many services that display overpriced odds. and below you can find my articles related to this topic:

Here is a short summary:

3. Value betting

As I already mentioned value betting is one of the most profitable mathematical betting strategies. I practiced this for many years and generated the most profits while actively using tools to support my speed and accuracy in finding positive EV bets.

The basic idea is very similar to arbitrage betting. You have to find outcomes and matches where bookmakers are making major mistakes.

These opportunities will offer you an advantage/edge over bookmakers by simply using math to win at sports betting.

The only real and sure way to beat the bookmakers is to place bets on odds where the statistical probability of an outcome is lower than the price offered by the bookie.

If you are following this simple rule, you will be profitable in the long run. I’ve been using this mathematical betting system for many years.

Betting as a living is not easy, but based on my example it is possible. Understanding the mathematics of sports betting is not simple for everyone.

arbitrage betting software

But learning strategies like value betting is the surest way to win in the long run too. You can read more about the topic and the ways of starting it in my value betting guide.

The following article is my detailed RebelBetting value betting review.

They are scanning bookmakers for overpriced markets.

Their sure betting and value betting service helped thousands of bettors to generate a lot of profits.

For bettors from the US or Canada, I suggest taking a look at my OddsJam Review.

This could be your first step for making thousands a month from sports betting.

If you would like to see a more detailed comparison table of the industry-leading services, check my best value bet finder article.

4. Trading and scalping at Betfair

Both of these techniques are mathematical and guaranteed strategies to generate profits.

Thousands of bettors are successfully making a decent income from exchanges like Betfair. The biggest advantage of these strategies is sustainability.

If you are using Betfair, you don’t have to be afraid of getting limited or banned for winning too much. Unfortunately, most bookmakers don’t like winning players.

You can read my following article if you are interested in Betfair scalping.

5. Database of statistics for accurate prediction

statisticsports football statistic site banner

By using a trustworthy site with accurate statistics you can make better decisions. With a good betting and staking strategy, you can beat the bookmakers even in the long run.

I have used and tested a football statistics tool and prediction site (a cheap one) that is offering an insanely profitable long-term betting strategy too. (18 thousand Pound sterling profits in 8 months based on 4000 bets – proved with a complete history in an excel file – matches + stakes)

These statistics are displayed in percentages and based on tens of thousands of matches from the past years. 

Using mathematical sports systems can be combined with tools that are based on purely historical data. In this case, bettors need a little bit of additional experience and knowledge about the dynamics of a football match to have a slight edge and an understanding of the real value of these tools.

Related article: Check my article about the best Asian handicap bookmakers

play the percentage football statistics prediction

Do you think it’s promising? Well, this is only 10% of what this site is able to offer.

Check my detailed review of this football statistics database. You can read about their competitors with even more tools, in-play notifications, and backtesting tools (test your strategy if it would work, based on historical data).

Their competitor StatisticSports offers advanced statistics, tools for in-play betting, and strategy testing software. These are based on tens of thousands of football matches from the past 5+ years.

statisticsports football without loosing backtesting

The system at StatisticSports is capable of backtesting your football betting strategy. It will check if your football betting strategy for first-half corners, goals, etc. would be profitable in the long run. This test is based on tens of thousands of matches and odds.

StatisticSports is also offering in-play signals based on your pre-selected filters. You can get notified about matches that have many corners, many goals, many dangerous attacks, etc.

Even the best tipsters need to make their strategies bulletproof. These statistics and the backtesting can offer them an edge against bookies.

6. Martingale staking system

I would like to also mention some staking strategies. Back in 2013, I thought that I found the golden strategy when I started to read about this staking method. 

It is based on increasing the stakes every time you lose, depending on the previous bets. Based on my experience my advice for football betting is to forget this staking system as a possible mathematical betting strategy. 

No matter what kind of strategy you use, everybody will face a longer losing streak. With this strategy, you could end up losing your whole bank.

7. Kelly criterion staking system

Is one of the most profitable and secure staking strategies based on mathematics. The idea behind the Kelly criterion is using stakes based on your actual balance.

For example: if you use 3-4% of your balance every time, if you start winning, your stakes will grow proportionally. This will cause massive winnings down the road.

In case you face a longer losing streak, the more you lose the smaller your future stakes will be. Kelly’s criterion is accepted as one of the most effective and safe mathematical staking strategies.

Advantages of mathematical betting strategies

  1. Increased accuracy in predictions: they rely on data analysis and statistical models to make better and more reliable predictions. Following these will lead to a higher degree of accuracy and more chance for long-term returns compared to relying on intuition or gut feelings.
  2. Reduced emotion in decision-making: Mathematical betting strategies remove the emotional aspect from betting, allowing for more objective and logical decisions. I earned the most from these methods when I stopped thinking about the true chance of a player (based on odds) and started believing in the power of having an edge against bookies.
  3. Objectivity in betting decisions: The use of data and statistics to inform decisions eliminates subjectivity, leading to more consistent and reliable outcomes. In other words, math-based tactics sooner or later will overcome even the longest variances (losing streaks). This way the long-term returns will have a growing trend.
  4. Better risk management: these strategies take into account the potential for risk, allowing for better management of losses and profits. Each strategy mentioned above has its own staking strategy. Bettors who follow them strictly will experience a better-optimized result even when they face a longer losing streak.
  5. Increased profits over time: By using data and statistical models to inform decisions, mathematical betting strategies have the potential to generate higher profits over a longer period of time compared to intuition-based approaches. The best staking strategy to apply is the Kelly criterion for positive EV betting. It helps you reduce losses and optimizes long-term profits. You won’t be able to have outstanding growth in a short period, but it protects you from losing your whole betting balance in a moment.
  6. Ability to analyze past performance: following these strategies will generate a decent amount of betting history, which can be analyzed to continually improve the strategy and refine your goals, optimized odds, and stakes.

Downsides of mathematical betting strategies

  1. Overreliance on data: they rely heavily on data and statistical models, which can lead to over-reliance on these tools and a lack of consideration for other important factors. This can be more than true for value bettors. I experienced the same when my main value betting software was down or it did not work properly.
  2. Limited adaptability: These strategies may struggle to adapt to sudden changes in the betting environment, such as a key player being injured or changes in the rules of a sport. Another big issue can appear while you are value betting. Even sharp bookmakers can make many mistakes and offer not accurate odds. In this situation, many players might notice these mistakes too late, which will result in many bets without a real edge against bookies.
  3. Difficulty in accounting for unexpected events: Unpredictable events, such as weather conditions or referee decisions, can have a significant impact on the way you place your future bets. Matched bettors and sure bettors can face real issues when they bet on one leg of a market and cannot cover the other outcome because of a sudden event such as bookies not offering odds for some reason.
  4. Technical expertise required: Implementing and utilizing mathematical betting strategies often requires a high level of technical expertise and a strong understanding of statistical methods, making it inaccessible to some individuals. I experienced this when I tried to help/teach other people/friends about these techniques. Some people might understand these ways of betting with math, while others might not.

Mathematics and staking strategies in sports betting and gambling

Money management strategies are based on statistical data and mathematics. In the long run, a good staking strategy has a big effect on your winnings.

Even a bad betting or gambling strategy has a very different result if your stakes are chosen well. The role of mathematics in betting strategies is to make your future results predictable and way more consistent.

Following a staking strategy will make your betting variance less and smaller. I think that the best reason for using mathematics at choosing odds and stakes is to avoid human error.

No matter what kind of betting strategy you use, if you let your feelings lead, your profits will be lower or you can end up at a loss.

Even some value betting strategies can’t guarantee good profits in the short run. But combining mathematics in the search of odds and in the stakes too can significantly increase your advantage against bookmakers.

Feelings can change your betting behavior, but good strategies based on statistics are profitable in every situation.

How is math used in sports betting?

Gambling and sports betting are based on mathematical and statistical calculations. Every outcome of every event in sports and in gambling has a real chance of probability.

But first of all, I would like to mention that you don’t have to be afraid of mathematics and statistics in sports betting. It may sound hard to understand, but I will only explain the basics. After that, you can easily learn how to profit from smart betting.

Bookmaker and casino payouts are based on these true chances to win a certain outcome.

Both of them are offering payouts or odds for your bets in such way that no matter if you win or lose if the sum of all bets from all players is distributed in proportion, they will make a guaranteed profit.

In sports betting, bookmakers are defining odds based on statistics. You as a smart bettor have the chance of making money on them with mathematics.

football betting statistics database Play the percentage

Mathematics in sports betting can be used in several ways.

The two ways I will mention are betting on odds with a higher value than their real probability and placing stakes based on mathematics.

How is math useful in sports?

We already know that bookmakers are generating odds mostly based on statistical data. If their odds are representing the real probability of the outcome being fulfilled, we as sports bettors have a chance to beat their system.

The only thing that an intelligent bettor needs to do is to find significantly higher odds than the odds offered by the bookies.

Why?

Well, if you are taking better odds than their real chance to win, in the long run, based on mathematics you will be in profit.

A simple example will clarify what I mean here.

If there is a tennis player who wins 50% of the matches played, the odds for that player would be 2 without the margin of the bookmaker. At the bookmaker, you would see an odd between 1.85-1.93 for this player.

Based on mathematics, if you can find odds over 2 on this player, in the long run, you will be in profit. Half of your bets will be winners, but your payout on every match will be more than twice your stake.

If you place 4 bets, every one of them with odds of 2.05 and you win only two of them you will end up with a profit of 0.1 units.

This mathematical betting strategy is called value betting or positive EV (expected value) betting. Besides a lot of techniques for gambling, value betting is the most profitable one but needs some patience.

Value betting as a strategy based on mathematics has proved that sports betting can be a profitable activity and not only gambling as many thought about it. The best way to quit a gambling addiction is not by trying to quit but by doing it in a way that generates even $100 a day profit from it.

Value betting has a downside as well, which is called variance.

Mathematically speaking in sports betting the chance of winning a bet with a real probability of 50% does not mean that your every second bet will be a winner.

In a coin toss, you have 50%-50% to guess the right side of the coin that will be the upside. But in reality, you can toss the coin 5 times and you can get heads every time…and later toss it 5 times again and you will get tails.

You get it right?

You will face the same situation in sports betting too.

The mathematical chance of winning your bet will only be 50% in the long run, which means 6 bets or even 20 bets too.

If you want to be a winner in gambling your goal should be to find strategies with payouts higher than the real probability. This could seem hard to learn, but in reality, smart betting strategies are not so hard to learn.

The hardest part is to find out that there are ways to make guaranteed money from betting. That part you already completed, because you are reading this article.

Tipstrr Review

If you want to find out how to find value bets and how to learn value betting strategies, you can read these articles.

A lot of bettors already made a big amount of money from betting based on mathematics so you have to learn it and make the same.

Are mathematicians good at gambling?

I think good mathematicians have the knowledge and the intellectual ability to understand the possibilities in gambling and sports betting.

These days you can find a lot of movies about successful sports bettors and poker players or blackjack players who won a big amount of money.

Even in these movies or stories, you can learn some valuable information about the possibilities in these industries. So, the information itself about the possibilities can reach anyone. Mathematicians are in a better position compared to other people.

Their analytical way of thinking and the equations they have learned are putting them at an advantage even against bookmakers.

These facts do not mean that every mathematician is good at gambling or in sports betting. Smart sports betting for example is based on mathematics, but a successful bettor also needs to know every rule, trend, and rule of the sport used.

On the other hand, to be successful in betting I think that in some way you have to like this industry and you have to like sports in general.

So my answer would be that not every mathematician is or can be good at gambling and sports betting, but they have a big advantage while learning it.

Want to read about crypto bookmakers? Check my following article about some of the best crypto bookmakers

Interested in table tennis betting? check my in-depth article about this topic.

FAQ

How is math used in sports betting?

Gambling and sports betting are based on mathematical and statistical calculations. Every outcome of each event in sports and in gambling has a real chance of probability. Math in sports betting can be used for defining the probability of an outcome and generating guaranteed profits.

How is math useful in sports?

The only thing that an intelligent bettor needs to do is to find significantly higher odds than the odds offered by the bookies.

Are mathematicians good at gambling?

I think good mathematicians have the knowledge and the intellectual ability to understand the possibilities of gambling and sports betting.

Mathematics and staking strategies in sports betting and gambling

Money management strategies are based on statistical data and mathematics. In the long run, a good staking strategy has a big effect on your winnings.

Sam @ Sportssmartbetting

I have been a professional sports bettor for almost 8 years. I have the most experience with matched betting, arbitrage betting, and learned the most about value betting. Each betting software and betting strategy I promote was tested or used for a longer period by myself.