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I’ve been value betting for several years now, and there is one question that I had to ask myself very often to max out my betting productivity.
Value betting has many rules, downsides, and advantages compared to other similar math-based sports betting strategies.
In this article, you can read about the basics of value betting such as the definition of it, examples, true probability, true odds, and many more.
What is value betting?
Value betting is a betting technique based on mathematics that allows you to beat the bookmakers in the long run based on placing bets on overpriced betting markets.
In sports betting and gambling, it’s a common saying that “the house always wins”.
Fortunately for us, with the proper strategy like value betting, we can get an “edge” over the bookmakers.
Value betting is the process by which a bettor can spot an outcome with higher odds than its probability of actually happening.
These betting opportunities with a positive EV (expected value) can be found with odds comparison sites such as BetBurger or OddsJam (for US bettors).
A value bet on sports events appears when the odds are higher than the real chance, the true probability of winning that outcome.
Placing bets on these wrong odds gives you an advantage, an edge over the bookmakers.
Value betting, in the long run, is the most profitable sports betting strategy.
What is an example of value betting?
Below is a real-life example of a value betting opportunity:
- Tennis player Novak Djokovic is playing against Daniil Medvedev
- Both are top players but most of the bookmakers think that Daniil has a 44% chance to win this match. For they are offering the odds of 2.10
- In many cases, the bookies are missing a piece of new information about the players (like Djokovic having a minor injury or being too tired because of a long match with someone else)
- In this case, the chance of Medvedev winning can grow to 55%
- If you are still able to bet on Daniil to win on the odds of 2.10, you have an edge over the bookie
We say value betting because placing bets on these opportunities with the wrong odds is offering us a chance to beat the bookmakers.
Placing only value bets is generating a guaranteed profit in the long run.
Bookmakers are trying to define the true odds, the real probability of every outcome in sports events.
To get the most accurate odds bookmakers need to have every essential information about the past and the present of teams and players.
Some bookmakers are not fast enough in getting and implementing new information. Being late means that they are not lowering the odds fast enough.
Smart sports bettors are taking advantage of these mistakes, and they are placing bets on odds that have not yet dropped.
Bookmakers are not doing this intentionally at all, but a lot of the time sports bettors are faster in taking action.
Check my article about the best value betting software!
What is true probability in value betting?
True probability in value betting is the correct statistical chance of a sports betting outcome to win. It is calculated and displayed in a percentage format.
Betting sites and value bettors use the odds format of this same true probability value to calculate the possible profits more easily.
Calculating/knowing the true probability in value betting is the first step for achieving long-term positive results.
My best tip for value betting:
Figuring out the true probability of an outcome is the key element of value betting. In sports betting, we call these sharp lines or sharp odds.
You can see that I had many dips, but overall if you can find overpriced bets, you will end up in guaranteed profits.
The average bookmakers have two strategies to increase their income:
- Offering very accurate odds with a fair profit margin (2 – 3%)
- Cutting the odds and increasing the profit margin (6-8%)
The ideal route would be to have sharp odds with a low profit margin, but most bookies don’t have the knowledge and background for this.
Asian bookies and Pinnacle Sports on the other hand are capable of using algorithms that can define the true probability of an outcome with the help of arbitrage bettors.
These bookies can offer higher odds because they know that the lines offered by them are close to the true probability.
Above you can see a simple example of sharp odds and a possibility for positive EV betting.
At Pinnacle, the odds for Orlando Pirates to score less than 2 goals are 1.847.
If we consider this a true line or sharp odds, then Unibet is offering significantly higher or wrong odds for the same outcome.
But most of the other bookies can’t follow the same strategy and, in many cases, they don’t have enough confidence in their lines and odds.
This is forcing them to offer lower maximum stakes and worse odds (because of larger profit margins to protect their edge).
The value bettors are trying to figure out the true probability of an outcome, and by placing bets on odds that exceed these lines they can have an edge and beat the bookies.
Check my article closely related to value betting about Pinnacle odds dropping finders.
What are the true odds or sharp odds?
True odds or in other names sharp odds represent the real probability of an outcome. True or sharp odds are the odds format of the real statistical chance of your bet.
At bookmakers, the true odds are very rare;
these are offered only for some bets as bonus odds.
In the world of sports betting, there is a margin between true odds and payoff odds.
This difference generates profit for bookmakers, and it is called the edge of the bookmaker.
The more a bookmaker can define odds the smaller the edge they can have on that outcome.
If you want to place tennis value bets on the match at an ITF tournament, which is a small tournament without big players, you will notice that it is hard to define the true probability of a player.
This can be an advantage as well if you have enough experience.
Bookmakers can’t define true odds for players with a very short history and with a fluctuating performance.
In these markets, the edge of the bookmaker will be very high, sometimes even above 8%.
Betting on tennis for a living will be hard if you start focusing on small events.
But on the other hand, on markets like odd/even on corners where the chances are 50/50, they can offer an edge of even 3%.
There are two “easy ways” to get the closest to true odds:
- Using exchanges like Betfair to see the real probability of an outcome. This only works on matches with a lot of stakes.
- Using the odds and lines of Pinnacle as a guide
Pinnacle is still the best bookmaker for value betting at defining true odds.
Comparing other soft bookmakers to Pinnacle with odds comparison sites is still very profitable in pre-match betting, on bigger leagues.
However in live betting, the odds are moving so fast and the events are changing so fast, that even Pinnacle is making mistakes.
Is Value betting profitable?
Value betting is the most profitable smart betting strategy.
Based on a big sample of value bettors, we already know that with value betting you can earn an ROI of 8-12% in the long run.
I have the same experience as well.
Arbitrage betting offers you an income with a risk of almost zero but with the price of fewer profits.
What types of value betting strategies are there?
1. Value betting based on odds
The first and most simple value betting strategy is based on finding the true/sharp odds of an outcome and looking for bookmakers that offer higher odds.
It’s simply because there are many software, algorithms, and sites that are comparing bookies with each other.
Finding value bets based only on odds in many cases does not require any experience and knowledge about sports.
Steps to follow:
- Find a value betting software that can define the true odds
- Open an account at some bookies that are making a fair number of mistakes (the ones that have the most value bets in this software)
- Follow a proper staking strategy (down below you can check the best ones)
2. Value betting based on experience
Many value bettors and arbitrage bettors have gained enough experience in this industry to spot value betting opportunities without software.
A simple example:
I’ve been watching tennis for many years.
When I used software for value betting, I also followed the matches, because I was too curious about how the results were changing.
In my article about the best value bet scanners, I’m covering the software I have used with success like the RebelBetting value betting tool.
I noticed many times that one of the players seemed influenced by feelings, tiredness, or weather conditions.
If you can spot a minor injury in time, you can place a bet on the next game result.
This way you have a good chance of getting your bet accepted and not voided later down the road.
3. Live value betting
Finding value bets on live sports events is fairly easy.
The odds are moving very fast so the bookies are making many mistakes.
On a single event, you can find many entry points no matter if you are using value betting software or just spotting them manually.
Upsides of live value bets:
- the bookies are making bigger and more mistakes
- more profits in the long run
- they can’t flag your account so easily for smart betting
- the bookies tend to limit later value betting on live events
Downsides of in-play value bets:
- the odds are moving very fast
- you will struggle to spot the right value bets
- the odds will drop faster, so it is harder to place the bets
- the chance of making mistakes is higher
- you will experience longer streaks of losing/winning bets
- it is harder to avoid big variances
How much can you make with a value betting strategy?
The realistic ROI (Return on investment) you can make on value betting is between 2% – 4% in the long run, in pre-match betting.
In live value betting, your return on investment can get even up to 7% – 8% depending on your strategy and access to soft bookmakers.
If you are underperforming at this level, continue reading and probably you will get an answer for the reason.
The main influencing factors of how much money you can make with value betting:
- How many bookmakers and accounts do you have access to
- The starting bankroll you have for betting purposes
- Your money management strategy
- The software you use for scanning bookmakers
- Variance in value betting
- How much time do you invest in learning and placing value bets
How much money do you need to start value betting?
In general, value betting requires less money to start than arbitrage betting. The starting capital for value betting can be even 200-300 euros.
But it is important to mention that the more money you are starting your betting activity, the faster and more profit you will generate.
But profits are very dependent on the amount of money you can roll over.
If you start with 1000 euros and you can roll it over 50 times in a month, your profit will be 1000 euros on an average ROI of 2%.
Value betting profits are based on how much money you can roll over in a period of time.
But having the possibility to start with 2000 or 3000 euros can double or triple your monthly income.
The more money you have available for value betting, the more value bets you can place without waiting too much for a match to end.
The more bets you place and the bigger stakes you use will increase your income.
Time is money, so the higher your hourly profit is, the more it is worth staying 8-10 hours in front of the computer.
What are the basic steps of value betting?
1. Register accounts at trustworthy soft bookmakers
- Every country has its regulations regarding sports betting and bookmakers’ licenses. The first thing you should check is the list of bookmakers you can legally use to avoid problems with the law.
- Check the available bookmakers if they are included in scanner services.
- Make sure that those bookmakers are trustworthy. If there are a lot of negative reviews or forum posts about them being scammy or not paying it is better to avoid them.
2. Choose a value betting scanner service that meets your needs
- The biggest influencing factor is the subscription price
- The number of bookmakers scanned
- How accurate are the displayed value bets are
- The speed of scanning
3. Choose Pinnacle as a reference for true odds
Pinnacle has the sharpest, most accurate odds in pre-match betting.
Comparing soft bookmakers with their true odds is still very profitable.
4. Place bets with a value of at least 1% – 3% but not more than 6%
Placing value bets with at least 1% of the value on them decreases the amount of variance.
The more value a bet has, the less variance you will face in the long run.
But keep in mind that placing bets with too big a value on them can flag your account for smart betting practices.
5. Start with small stakes
Starting with small stakes will help you delay being limited and also will help you to decrease the loss if you make mistakes.
Beginner value bettors are making a lot of mistakes which can cost you a lot.
I suggest you should bet only 3% – 4% of your bankroll until you get more experience.
6. Analyze your bet history
After you place 150-200 value bets, you can start building an Excel file with your bets and stakes.
Applying filters and making calculations can highly improve your value betting strategy.
