Team sports, in general, are the easiest to analyze and predict the outcome of the event. Football is the most analyzed and has the largest history of data and trends amongst sports. This is the reason why bookmakers can be so accurate at defining the odds or real probability of an outcome.
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How to Make Money from Football Betting?
The best and most profitable football betting strategies for winning and making money from football betting are arbitrage betting, matched betting, and value betting. Football betting strategies based on experience and statistics can also be profitable, but the best ones are based on good odds at bookmakers.
For a detailed explanation of these betting strategies keep reading.
The accuracy of defining odds is giving us sports bettors the biggest chance to win our bets and make money with our sport betting strategies. In order to answer the question of what is the best football betting strategy, we have to dive deeper into the topic.
What is the difference between a normal bettor and one with a smart betting strategy?
Bookmakers are in competition with each other and with the bettors too. Even though bettors are their clients, their source of income, us as smart bettors are in a contest against bookmakers. We are trying to get money from them and they are trying to get ours.
In order to increase their profitability, bookmakers have several methods like being as accurate in defining odds as possible or lowering odds to increase their profits.
Normal bettors are placing bets on football matches on odds that are sentenced to lead them to the loss of their money in the long run. This does not necessarily happen because they are choosing bad matches or outcomes.
Not knowing or not understanding the importance of odds and real probability is a straight road to losing money.
Every time we place a bet on a football event we have to be sure that it was placed on good odds. By good odds I mean those that are at least equal to their real probability of winning.
Bettors with smart football betting strategies are choosing odds that have value on them. Outcomes with bigger odds than the real probability are generating guaranteed income in the long run.
Finding these opportunities with good odds is the easiest in football betting, because of the big amount of matches.
How do you earn money from football betting every time?
Arbitrage and matched betting are the only ways of winning every time and earning a guaranteed money with football betting. The profit on your bets is significantly less compared to other football betting strategies, like value betting, but the profit and win are guaranteed every time.
Arbitrage betting as a proven football betting system
Arbitrage betting is the easiest and most stable betting strategy to make a guaranteed profit on football. This betting strategy is based on finding odds that are wrong, not representing the real chance of the outcome, and covering the other outcome on sharp, right odds.
For example, a football team normally would have an odd of 1.50, meaning that they have a 66.7% chance to win the match. If a bookmaker is messing up the odds and they are offering an odd of 1.72 for them, which is equal to 58% of probability to win.
In this situation, you place a bet of $100 on this team on an odd of 1.72 and you cover the other team and the draw outcomes (1X or X2 bets) at a different bookmaker with an odd of 2.55, by placing $67.
Regardless of the outcome the match will have, you make a profit of $4.5.
This could seem too little of a profit to you but imagine placing 500 similar bets in a month.
You can practice arbitrage betting as your football betting strategy for a side hustle, but with enough learning and gaining experience, you can do it for a living too.
For more information about how to find arbitrage bets, you can read the following article.
Matched betting as a football betting strategy
Matched betting is a smart betting strategy that can be used in football betting. It is based on arbitrage betting.
Bookmakers are offering welcome bonuses, free bets, boosted odds in order to attract the attention of potential customers or bettors. Regular bettors are trying to take advantage of these bonuses by placing normal bets and hoping for a winning bet.
Bonuses used this way are a big waste of opportunity in making guaranteed profits from sports betting.
How to use matched betting for winning with football betting?
- Find bookmakers with good bonus offers, I would say at least a 20 dollar free bet bonus
- Place arbitrage bets with these bonuses, so no matter which outcome will win, you complete the requirements and you can withdraw the bonus money (check the Terms and Conditions for that particular bonus)
How to calculate stakes at matched betting?
Stakes at free bets:
- You have to find an arbitrage opportunity close to 0% at least (for higher returns)
- The higher odd of the arbitrage must be at the bookmaker with the bonus. For example: from an arbitrage opportunity of 0% like 1.50 – – 3, the odd of 3 should be at the bookmaker with the free bet (you will win more money from that bet)
- An example for a 20 dollar free bet:
- You place 20 dollars on odds of 3.
- The stake at the odds of 1.50 : ($20 * 3 – $20)/1.50 = $26
- Team with odds of 3 wins: $20 * 3 – $20 stake – $26 stake at other outcome = $14 of profit
- Team with cover bet at the other bookmaker wins: $26 * 1.5Odd – $26 stake = $13 of profit because you get $20 money back from the lost free bet.
Why take higher odds when matched betting on free bets?
For example: from an arbitrage opportunity of 0% like 1.25 – – 5, the odds of 5 should be at the bookmaker with the free bet
An example for a 20 dollar free bet:
- You place 20 dollars on odds of 5.
- The stake at the odds of 1.25 : ($20 * 5 – $20)/1.25 = $64
- Team with odds of 5 wins: $20 * 5 – $20 stake – $64 stake at other outcome = $16 of profit.
- Team with cover bet at the other bookmaker wins: $64 * 1.25Odd – $64 stake= $16 of profit because you get $20 money back from the other outcome because of the free bet.
At simple bonuses where you have to roll over an amount of money in order to get the bonus the only thing you have to do is placing arbitrage bets close to 0%. Placing big % arbitrage bets as a matched bettor is not advised. The more an account stays under the radar the more chance you have to get bonuses.
About how to delay getting limited at bookmakers you can read more in the following article.
Value betting as a football betting strategy
Value betting in general is based on the same basic idea and strategy as arbitrage betting. Our goal as smart bettors is to find markets on football matches where bookmakers are offering wrong odds.
By this, I mean that they are offering odds higher than the real probability of winning. Every time you find betting possibilities like this, you should place bets on them.
This football betting strategy is based on mathematics and real probability.
It is known, that in the long run, the outcomes are very close to the odds offered by sharp bookmakers (those who are the best at defining real probability).
You may be confused now, but let me explain this with an example.
There is a team that has a 66% of chance winning the match. Most of the bookmakers are offering an odd of 1.40-1.45 with their margin of winning. But there is a bookmaker which is offering an odd of 1.70.
The goal of a value bettor is to take these value betting opportunities at every match possible. We know that this team has a 66% chance of winning, so if we are placing a lot of these wrong odds, in the long run, we will end up with a decent profit.
Price Boost betting in football betting
Bookmakers are often offering to boost our odds by 15% – 20%. These opportunities are creating arbitrage opportunities for smart bettors.
Placing these kinds of bets is increasing your profits. The best thing about them is that bookmakers can’t consider them as arbitrage betting activity. This kind of betting strategy can offer you only a fraction of your winning at football betting. But if they are available, you should use them.
Betting on football only after statistics
Bookmakers are generating odds based on their database of historical data and every piece of information available. The amount of information they get can be different between bookmakers.
Investing in football betting based on statistics is only viable if you prove that your information about the match and players are more accurate.
Bookmakers do not have the resource to react to every new trend and information for every match available. Your advantage in football betting could be in following the matches live; – Taking action when the bookmaker is not as fast as they should be.
Example for football betting strategy based on statistics:
- You can find a lot of databases about football matches in the past
- You can analyze them, noting for example, how both teams had a lot of corners in the past 5-8 matches in the first half
- Open the match when the match is live and follow them in the first half
- If they have fewer corners at the minute of 30-35 than you would expect after statistics you should have more attention to the dynamic of the playstyle
- If one or both of the teams are pushing for a goal and the number of dangerous attacks is high you can wait for at least one more corner
- I suggest you wait till the odds for the over corner get to at least 1.70-1.85
- If the odds are high enough for one more corner and you have more than 5-6 minutes remaining from the first half, you can take the chance of placing that over bet
- Keep in mind that this strategy should be based on experience and a deep understanding of statistical data
What is the best strategy for sports betting?
Arbitrage betting is the best strategy for those bettors who don’t like to take risks at all. Placing arbitrage bets only on football might offer a decent monthly profit for a very low risk.
Arbitrage betting best combined with matched betting in order to maximize the return on every bet. Value betting on other hand is the best money-generating strategy in the long run.
But for this additional income that is 50% – 70% more than with arbitrage betting, you have to take way more risk.
While value betting you can experience large variances. Your balance at bookmakers can grow rather high, but there is a chance that sometimes your balance can get to 0. Most experienced smart bettors are preferring value betting for higher returns.
Is arbitrage betting still profitable? Find out!
Arbitrage betting and matched betting are the most reliable techniques.
A betting bonus that can be exploited for a guaranteed profit.
For beginner bettors arbitrage and matched betting. More advanced bettors can make more money with Value betting.
For experience bettors this technique can generate even long-term profits.