Top 5 Proven football betting strategies & systems [2023]

Team sports, in general, are the easiest to analyze and predict the outcome of the event. Football is the most analyzed and has the largest history of data and trends among sports.

This is why bookmakers can be so accurate at defining the odds or real probability of an outcome.

Some football data analytics services are based on Artificial Intelligence such as ZCode Systems.

zcode system icon

ZCode System

  • Zcode Scores Predictor is using advanced scores prediction formula that takes into account 80+ parameters
  • Optimized on the historical data to perform 10,000 simulations of the game and predict the anticipated scores.

$7 – Trial

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They are processing 10,000 simulations of the game and predicting the anticipated scores and also it is an important tool for my daily betting routines.

Which are the best, proven football betting systems & strategies?

The best and most profitable football betting strategies and systems for making money from football betting are arbitrage betting, matched betting, and value betting.

Football betting strategies based on experience and statistics can also be profitable, but the best ones are based on good odds at bookmakers.

football statistics database

For a detailed explanation of these betting strategies keep reading.

The accuracy of defining odds is giving us sports bettors the biggest chance to win our bets and make money with our sports betting strategies. In order to answer the question of what is the best football betting strategy, we have to dive deeper into the topic.

Arbitrage betting and matched betting are the only strategies for winning every time and earning guaranteed money with football betting.

The profit on your bets is significantly less compared to other football betting strategies, like value betting, but the profit and win are guaranteed every time.

arbitrage betting software

OddsJam is the most well-developed tool for matched betting in the USA. Check my OddsJam review for more info.

1. Arbitrage betting: Proven football betting system that works

Arbitrage betting is the easiest and most stable betting strategy to make a guaranteed profit on football. This betting strategy is based on finding odds that are wrong, not representing the real chance of the outcome, and covering the other outcome on sharp, right odds.

You can check my in-depth arbitrage betting guide.

For example, a football team normally would have an odd of 1.50, meaning that they have a 66.7% chance to win the match. If a bookmaker is messing up the odds and they are offering an odd of 1.72 for them, which is equal to 58% of probability to win.

In this situation, you place a bet of $100 on this team on an odd of 1.72 and you cover the other team and the draw outcomes (1X or X2 bets) at a different bookmaker with an odd of 2.55, by placing $67.

Regardless of the outcome the match will have, you make a profit of $4.5.

This could seem too little of a profit to you but imagine placing 500 similar bets in a month.

You can practice arbitrage betting as your football betting strategy for a side hustle, but with enough learning and gaining experience, you can do it for a living too.

For more information, you can read the following article about how to find arbitrage bets or my list of the top sure bet finders.

2. Value betting: Most profitable football betting system

Value betting in general is based on the same basic idea and strategy as arbitrage betting. Our goal as smart bettors is to find markets on football matches where bookmakers are offering the wrong odds.

By this, I mean that they are offering odds higher than the real probability of winning. Every time you find betting possibilities like this, you should place bets on them.

football betting strategy PTP
Football betting strategy: value betting (based on PlayThePercentage – more info below)

This football betting strategy is based on mathematics and real probability.

It is known, that in the long run, the outcomes are very close to the odds offered by sharp bookmakers (those who are the best at defining real probability).

You may be confused now, but let me explain this with an example.

There is a team that has a 66% chance of winning the match. Most of the bookmakers are offering an odds of 1.40-1.45 with their margin of winning. But there is a bookmaker who is offering an odd of 1.70.

The goal of a value bettor is to take these value betting opportunities at every match possible. We know that this team has a 66% chance of winning, so if we are placing a lot of these wrong odds, in the long run, we will end up with a decent profit.

Check my value betting guide for more info or my list of the best value betting software or alternatively my RebelBetting review to learn more about one of the best services.

3. Football betting system based on statistics

Bookmakers are generating odds based on their database of historical data and every piece of information available. The amount of information they get can be different between bookmakers.

Winning football bets based on statistics is only viable if you prove that your information about the match and players are more accurate.

Bookmakers do not have the resource to react to every new trend and information for every match available. Your advantage in football betting could be in following the matches live; – Taking action when the bookmaker is not as fast as it should be.

Example of football betting strategy based on statistics:

  • You can find a lot of databases about football matches in the past
  • You can analyze them, noting for example,  how both teams had a lot of corners in the past 5-8 matches in the first half
  • Open the match when the match is live and follow them in the first half
  • If they have fewer corners at the minute of 30-35 than you would expect after statistics you should have more attention to the dynamic of the playstyle
  • If one or both of the teams are pushing for a goal and the number of dangerous attacks is high you can wait for at least one more corner
  • I suggest you wait till the odds for the over corner get to at least 1.70-1.85
  • If the odds are high enough for one more corner and you have more than 5-6 minutes remaining from the first half, you can take the chance of placing that over bet
  • Keep in mind that this strategy should be based on experience and a deep understanding of statistical data

I have used many football databases and statistical tools, but the top two services which caught my attention were PlayThePercentage and ZCode Systems.

Both services get data from tens of thousands of football matches each year. Their way of approach to these statistics is different but the amount of value they can offer for a football betting strategy is amazing.

statisticsports football without loosing backtesting

Play ThePercentage for example is capable of processing this data and backtesting your football strategy. It means if you want to try a new strategy they are capable of testing it based on historical data and odds. You can insert everything about your system and their software will tell you if you would be profitable or not in the long run.

Zcode system on the other hand is focusing on analyzing historical data and will display predictions based on them. One of their most important tool for your football betting strategy can compare upcoming events based on these statistics.

zcode system betting software

It will display every essential data, like the chance of scoring over 2.5 goals, having over 5 cards, scoring more than 10 corners, etc. Each of these predictions is displayed in a percentage format.

Zcode Scores Predictor is using advanced scores prediction formula that takes into account 80+ parameters, optimized on the historical data to perform 10,000 simulations of the game and they really know how to predict football matches correctly and anticipate scores based on pure data.

You can read more about these services in my following football betting data article.

4. Follow tipsters with a good football betting strategy

If you are reading this article, you probably already tried following tipster services. Many people think that finding a tipster on a platform with a long and profitable prediction history is enough to support even your American football betting system.

In most cases, this is not true because of the simple fact that many tipsters can manipulate their betting history. By this, they can change a losing streak into long-term profits by simply changing stakes or deleting some bets.

If you truly want to follow successful and trustworthy tipsters, you need to platforms such as Tipstrr. Here nobody can delete/manipulate betting history. 

football betting strategy tipsters

Their filtering system will help you spot the best sites that predict football matches correctly and can support even your football betting strategy.

Some of them offer predictions even for free. If you can spot an upcoming skilled tipster, you can follow them even for free or for a very low fee (like $1).

I’ve been betting on many sports with many different betting strategies for football, basketball, tennis, etc.

The one thing I learned is that nobody is going to offer a quality strategy or information for free.

You can also check my Tipstrr Review or my article about the best tipster with the top football tipsters included.

5. Matched betting: Simple football betting strategy

Matched betting is the simplest football betting strategy. It is based on odds comparison sites and odds differences between bookies.

Even Crypto Bookmakers are offering welcome bonuses, SNR free bets, and boosted odds in order to attract the attention of potential customers or bettors. Regular bettors are trying to take advantage of these bonuses by placing normal bets and hoping for a winning bet.

oddsmonkey matched betting win on football banner

Bonuses used this way are a big waste of opportunity in making guaranteed profits from sports betting.

Besides using many bookie scanners I also tried two of the best matched betting services in the UK. Both of them offer an in-depth tutorial and guides on how to make advantage of bookie offers.

Check my and OddsMonkey review for more info.

How to use matched betting for winning with football betting?

  • Find bookmakers with good bonus offers, I would say at least a 20-dollar free bet bonus
  • Place arbitrage bets with these bonuses, so no matter which outcome will win, you complete the requirements and you can withdraw the bonus money (check the Terms and Conditions for that particular bonus)

How to calculate stakes at matched betting?

Stakes at free bets:

  1. You have to find an arbitrage opportunity close to 0% at least (for higher returns)
  2. The higher odd of the arbitrage must be at the bookmaker with the bonus. For example: from an arbitrage opportunity of 0% like 1.50 – – 3, the odd of 3 should be at the bookmaker with the free bet (you will win more money from that bet)
  • An example of a 20-dollar free bet:
  • You place 20 dollars on odds of 3.
  • The stake at the odds of 1.50 : ($20 * 3 – $20)/1.50 = $26
  • Team with odds of 3 wins: $20 * 3 – $20 stake – $26 stake at another outcome = $14 of profit
  • The team with a cover bet at the other bookmaker wins: $26 * 1.5Odd – $26 stake = $13 of profit because you get $20 money back from the lost free bet.

Why take higher odds when matched betting on free bets?

For example: from an arbitrage opportunity of 0% like 1.25 – – 5, the odds of 5 should be at the bookmaker with the free bet.

arbitrage betting software

An example of a 20-dollar free bet:

  • You place 20 dollars on odds of 5.
  • The stake at the odds of 1.25 : ($20 * 5 – $20)/1.25 = $64
  • Team with odds of 5 wins $20 * 5 – $20 stake – $64 stake at another outcome = $16 of profit.
  • The team with a cover bet at the other bookmaker wins $64 * 1.25Odd – $64 stake= $16 of profit because you get $20 money back from the other outcome because of the free bet.

In simple bonuses where you have to roll over an amount of money in order to get the bonus, the only thing you have to do is place arbitrage bets close to 0%. Placing big % arbitrage bets as a matched bettor is not advised. The more an account stays under the radar the more chance you have to get bonuses.

In my following article, you can read more about how to delay being gubbed at bookmakers.

Price Boost betting in football betting

Tipstrr Review

Bookmakers are often offering to boost our odds by 15% – 20%. These opportunities are creating arbitrage opportunities for smart bettors.

Placing these kinds of bets is increasing your profits. The best thing about them is that bookmakers can’t consider them arbitrage betting activities. This kind of betting strategy can offer you only a fraction of your winning at football betting. But if they are available, you should use them.

Normal bettor vs one that follows a smart football betting technique?

Bookmakers are in competition with each other and with the bettors too. Even though bettors are their clients, their source of income, we as smart bettors are in a contest against bookmakers. We are trying to get money from them and they are trying to get ours.

In order to increase their profitability, bookmakers have several methods like being as accurate in defining odds as possible or lowering odds to increase their profits.

Normal bettors are placing bets on football matches on odds that are sentenced to lead them to the loss of their money in the long run. This does not necessarily happen because they are choosing bad matches or outcomes.

Not knowing or not understanding the importance of odds and real probability is a straight road to losing money.

Every time we place a bet on a football event we have to be sure that it was placed on good odds. By good odds, I mean those that are at least equal to their real probability of winning.

  • Bettors with smart NFL betting strategies are choosing odds that have value on them. Outcomes with bigger odds than the real probability are generating guaranteed income in the long run.

Finding these opportunities with good odds is the easiest in football betting, because of the number of matches and championships.

Conclusion: Which is the best football betting system?

Arbitrage betting is the best football betting strategy for bettors who don’t like to take risks at all. Placing arbitrage bets only on football might offer a decent monthly profit for a very low risk.

Arbitrage betting is best combined with matched betting in order to maximize the return on every bet. Value betting on the other hand is the best money-generating strategy in the long run.

But for this additional income that is 50% – 70% more than with arbitrage betting, you have to take way more risk.

With value betting which is the most profitable football betting system, you can experience large variances. Your balance at bookmakers can grow rather high, but there is a chance that sometimes your balance can get to 0.

Most experienced smart bettors are preferring value betting for higher returns.

Is arbitrage betting still profitableRead my article and find out!

Most popular football betting systems of all time?

There are a number of football betting systems that have been developed to help bettors make informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of winning. Here are a few examples of proven football betting systems:

  1. Martingale system: This system involves doubling your bet after each loss until you eventually win, at which point you return to your original bet size. The idea behind the Martingale system is that you will eventually win and recoup your losses, plus a small profit.
  2. Kelly Criterion: The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps bettors determine the optimal size of their bets based on the probability of winning and the odds being offered. The goal of the Kelly Criterion is to maximize long-term profits while minimizing the risk of losing money.
  3. Value betting: Value betting involves finding bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds being offered by the bookmaker suggest. The idea behind value betting is to place bets on outcomes that are more likely to happen than the odds imply, which can give you an edge over the bookmaker and increase your chances of winning.
  4. Head-to-head statistics: Some bettors use head-to-head statistics, such as past performance and current form, to make informed decisions about which team is more likely to win a particular match.

It is important to note that no betting system can guarantee success, and bettors should always be aware of the risks involved in sports betting. It is also a good idea to diversify your bets and not rely on any single system or approach.


What is the best football betting system that works?

Matched betting and arbitrage betting are the best football betting systems if you want to win every time. Both of them are covering every outcome in a market with a guaranteed profit. Other strategies like value betting can offer more profits in the long run.

Best profitable football betting systems?

1. Matched betting
2. Arbitrage betting
3. Value betting
4. Trading on exchanges
5. Following a football statistics database
6. Following trustworthy tipsters

Best football betting strategies that work?

1. Arbitrage betting
2. Value betting
3. Football strategies based on statistics
4. Football strategies based on trustworthy tipsters
5. Matched betting on football

Sam @ Sportssmartbetting

I have been a professional sports bettor for almost 8 years. I have the most experience with matched betting, arbitrage betting, and learned the most about value betting. Each betting software and betting strategy I promote was tested or used for a longer period by myself.