Tipsters, in general, are having an important place in the industry of sports betting. Most of us were in an unpleasant situation when we wanted to try sports betting, because without any experience, it’s more like gambling.
Back in 2013 when I started to learn about sports betting, my first step was to follow some tipsters.
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Are football tipsters legit and predictable?
Not every football tipster site and tipster is legit and predictable. But you can find some profitable tipsters and if they can prove that their betting history is extended enough, they can be legit and their betting performance can be predictable in the long run. Keep reading for more details.
What is a football tipster?
These days almost anybody can be a football tipster who is offering betting advice, suggestions, and tips for football events.
Most tipsters start their activity by offering free advice on free platforms. Sadly, most of them are just motivated football fans, hopefully with substantial experience and knowledge about football teams and players.
The success and profitability of a tipster can be determined by the return on investment (ROI), which is the most accurate indicator of success.
Are football tipsters legit?
The main problem with being a tipster is that anybody can claim to be a professional in giving betting advice.
The only thing needed for a motivated football fan to become a tipster is to set up an account at some tipster sites or make a well-designed website.
Making social media accounts and paying for some ads can already put you on the map as a football tipster.
We all have seen these kinds of tipsters or sometimes scammers, who are willing to say and make proof about anything to get your trust and your money.
On the other hand, you can find some really experienced and skilled tipsters who can bring a real difference in your betting results.
If you want to find legit football tipsters, you need to check the following points:
- How long their betting history is
- Whether you can find real social proof about their betting activity
The first and most important thing to check is the social proof about the tipster website and the tipster too.
Some comment screenshots on the website’s landing page or social proof section are not what I meant. Those proofs are very easy to edit from fake photos.
Even social media comments are not enough for trustworthy proof. You can easily pay someone to get these dummy comments.
I think that the best way to get credible proof about a service is by researching in forums, blogs, Facebook, and Reddit groups that are not related to them.
Recently I found some comments about Blogabet, which is a service you have probably already heard of. They are giving the interface for tipsters for displaying their picks.
The user posted the following about Blogabet:
A lot of the tipsters are manipulating results to have higher ROI:
- Changing staking systems after 1-2 months so the site will display higher ROI than the realistic one
- Taking picks right before a goal. So, in the statistics, it will came out as a winning bet, but a follower could never place these bets
- Taking odds and picks before the bookie posting the odds for that match The other drawbacks of following tipsters:
- Most of the time you can’t catch the bets on the same odds, which can result in your loss
- If the tipster is successful, the number of followers is higher. This results in a faster drop of the odds on the picks. Even if you have automatic bet placement, the chance of catching every bet on the same odds is not too high.
Placing bets after tipster predictions can be viable only if you are catching almost every bet on the same or higher odds.
Are football tipsters predictable and profitable?
I think this is the most interesting and most controversial question on this topic. Some football tipsters can maintain a decent level of ROI in the long run.
They even can have trustworthy proof about the performance completed. But the answer to this question is not a simple yes or no.
To evaluate the profitability and predictability of a tipster you need to check some really important factors:
The whole betting history of the tipster:
- First of all, how long is their betting history? You can find a lot of tipsters who seem to be the best of the bests for around 1-2 years, which might seem very good. But in this industry, the fact that you are profitable for 1 year is not real proof of being constant in the long run too.
- The number of tips in the betting history is the other big factor. Some tipsters are profitable for 2 years, but with only 60 picks and that performance has no real credibility
The average odds provided:
- Betting on lower odds is more predictable. By this, I mean odds between 1.6-2.30 for example
- On the other hand, picks on higher odds can cause a bigger variance, which can be profitable in the long run, but it is less predictable
A good way of checking if the tipster is predictable and is on a good road is by checking the closing lines and odds at Pinnacle.
For example their closing lines are very close to the real probability, and they can give you a good idea about how much trust you should put in the tipster.
Most profitable bettors in sports betting, in the long run too, are putting their trust in bookmakers with very sharp odds like Pinnacle.
The betting strategy named Value betting is based on finding overpriced markets and outcomes. Permanently these wrong odds can guarantee you to end up in profit.
Betting on higher odds than the Pinnacles closing line is proved to be a money-generating strategy.
A lot of tipsters have their strategy based on this technique, and they can be predictable.
- You find football tipsters with a relatively long betting history and with a decent 3%-5% ROI after 1000+ picks.
- You can be almost certain that their experience and success are based on getting the best odds possible too.
Smart betting with strategies, that can generate profit in the long run too, are based on mathematics.
In my experience and after the opinion of a lot of smart bettors I can say that a betting strategy that is not based on mathematics has a very low chance of being sustainable.
Following tipsters can have the following benefits:
- You don’t need to have too much experience in sports betting
- The tipsters will be the ones to spend the time on researching and not you
- You will use a good money management system
Who is a good tipster?
Finding a good tipster that can be followed for a longer period is not easy. Most of them will be influenced by emotions, or they don’t stick to a strategy.
Using common-sense while choosing a tipster is the basis of not getting scammed.
If you find websites with tipsters who are performing very well, you should be a little skeptical.
In this industry, if something looks too good to be true…then most probably it is. Many tipsters are manipulating their result graphs by deleting lost picks or changing the stakes, resulting in better ROI.
For a quick example, I would mention tipsters who are placing bets at Pinnacle and their return on investment is very high, like 15%+.
If you know that a tipster website is giving these kinds of opportunities for tipsters, you should be more careful.
- A good tipster will give only a few picks, and it is possible to even skip some days
- You should find tipsters with a history of more years, most preferably 2+ at least
- The more picks they have, the more trustworthy and predictable they are
- Avoiding tipsters with too high ROI would be a wise idea (the realistic ROI is between 5%-10% at soft bookmakers)
After reading this article you might have the feeling that I’m against tipster services.
Well, to be honest, I don’t like any kinds of betting techniques that are close to the gambling style.
In my experience finding a reliable, trustworthy tipster is a hard task. A lot of them are manipulating the betting history to get more clients.
You need to be fairly experienced to ignore these kinds of tipsters.
Following proven and profitable smart betting strategies is the way of betting that I want to promote.
Any strategy that is profitable in the long-run has my full support. I’m totally against any gambling activity.
Gambling in general has ruined a lot of lives and made a lot of people lose everything.
If you are interested in sports betting I would suggest the following betting strategies that are proved to be successful and profitable:
The main problem with being a tipster is that anybody can claim to be a professional in giving betting advice. No every one of them is legit.
Some football tipsters can maintain a decent level of ROI in the long run, but not all of them.
You should find tipsters with a history of more years, most preferably 2+ at least.